BlockBeats reported on Oct. 16 that analyst MorenoDV, citing CryptoQuant data, said the Bitcoin bear market reshaped the capital structure of the network’s largest holders. New whales now make up about one-third of the combined realized capitalization of all whale cohorts, making recent large holders increasingly important to the recovery narrative.
As of Oct. 15, new whales held $78.61 billion in realized capitalization, while old whales held $159.15 billion. That puts the new-whale share at 33.06%, up from about 18% at the beginning of 2026. The measure reflects the value of coins when they last moved on-chain, rather than those holders’ share of total BTC supply.
New-whale realized cap has been rising since September
MorenoDV said the increase is not merely a shift in relative weighting. Since September, realized capitalization attributed to new whales has kept rising, while old-whale realized cap has remained broadly stable. In his reading, that means the recent phase of expansion has been concentrated in the younger holder cohort.
$77,000 emerges as a key cost basis level
The realized price chart supports that view. The aggregate cost basis for new whales fell from around $110,000 near the previous cycle peak to about $68,000 by the end of August, then recovered to roughly $77,000. MorenoDV said that pattern matches a repricing of holdings at lower levels during the downturn, followed by renewed participation as prices recovered.
The data suggests whales accumulated during periods of market weakness and continued doing so into the rebound. MorenoDV compared that behavior to a counter-cyclical positioning pattern often associated with stronger hands. He also noted that, because cohort rotation and transfers can influence realized capitalization, growth in that metric should not be treated as the same thing as an equivalent amount of new cash entering the market.