ChainCatcher reported that data from market data platform Deribit shows a notable imbalance in the Bitcoin options market as BTC continued to fall through June. Around $8.6 billion in notional value of BTC options are currently out of the money, or OTM, and face the risk of expiring worthless. The imbalance is concentrated in options contracts scheduled to expire on June 26.
June 26 Open Interest Is Heavily Out of the Money
According to Deribit data, the June 26 BTC options expiry has approximately $10.6 billion in open interest by notional value. Of that total, only about 20% is currently in the money, or ITM. The remaining 80% is now in a loss-making position, meaning most of the expiring contracts do not currently carry intrinsic value after Bitcoin’s decline.
The data indicates that the amount of OTM exposure is roughly $8.6 billion. This structure creates a concentrated expiry setup in which a large share of contracts could lose all value if prices remain away from their strike levels. The report noted that such a structural imbalance may lead market makers and traders to make concentrated hedging adjustments before expiry, which could amplify short-term market volatility.
Max Pain Sits Above the Current Bitcoin Price
The current max pain level is around $74,000, about 14% higher than Bitcoin’s current price of roughly $65,000. In theory, the max pain level is the price at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless. For that reason, it may create upward pull on price as expiry approaches. However, the report also stated that the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains disputed.
The call and put structures in the options market are relatively close, with the Put/Call ratio at about 0.87. This shows that market sentiment has become more divided. In terms of specific positioning, around $450 million in open interest is concentrated in the $60,000 put option, while the $80,000 call option has also formed a key resistance level with about $406 million in open interest.
Analysts cited in the source believe that, as the quarterly expiry approaches, concentrated exercise activity and hedging adjustments may become important drivers of short-term price movement. Under this expiry structure, Bitcoin may face a more volatile window for directional movement as traders respond to the distribution of positions across key strike prices.