Near-Term Resistance: ETF Outflows and Options Expiry
Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted and failed to sustain a breakout above the $60,000 resistance level in recent weeks, primarily due to two major headwinds. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record net outflow of approximately $4.5 billion in June, directly weakening buying support at the market. Second, the expiry of tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin options on the Deribit exchange created severe congestion around the $60,000 strike price, adding technical selling pressure.
Macro Environment: Hawkish Fed and Capital Rotation
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, and resilient U.S. employment data continues to lower market expectations for rate cuts, diminishing the overall appeal of risk assets. Meanwhile, capital has been rotating toward high-growth sectors such as AI and semiconductors, diverting incremental liquidity that might have entered the crypto market. This lack of fresh inflows leaves Bitcoin without sufficient momentum to challenge the $60,000 level decisively.