Technical Picture: Weekly Bottoming Pattern Emerges
Bitcoin has closed above $63,000 for three consecutive weekly candles after hitting a 2026 low near $59,000, indicating a relatively stable technical structure. On the weekly chart, the current movement closely resembles the bottoming process seen in late 2022 to early 2023. Back then, the weekly RSI recovered from oversold territory and formed a higher low while the price made a lower low, creating a classic bullish divergence that served as a critical turning point before the 2023 uptrend. Now, the market is closely watching the $63,000 zone, where a similar positive RSI divergence is forming, and multiple weekly closes above this level have kept the price above the recent low of $59,000.
Derivatives data also sends reassuring signals. Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped 19.5% from its June peak, indicating lower leverage. The funding rate has fallen from 0.1% in early June to 0.02%, suggesting that long sentiment has become more rational. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of approximately $540 million over the past two weeks, a notable slowdown from the $5.5 billion outflow in the previous month. Together, these metrics indicate that the market is gradually working off excess selling pressure while the price remains near a key support zone.
On-Chain Data: Long-Term Holders Accumulate, Sell Pressure Indicator Hits Record Inactivity
On-chain data further supports the bottoming narrative. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the realized supply of long-term holders has risen to 12.42 million BTC, a direct reflection of supply maturing and moving to stronger hands. As short-term speculators exit, the proportion of coins held by long-term holders is rising—a characteristic often associated with market bottoms.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s sales pressure indicator has remained inactive for 1,256 consecutive days, the longest streak on record. This indicator measures the willingness of the market to sell Bitcoin; its prolonged inactivity suggests that a large amount of Bitcoin is being held for the long term, with selling intention falling to extremely low levels. This phenomenon signals that Bitcoin may be stabilizing near a potential cycle low.
Combining technical and on-chain data, Bitcoin after its sharp correction is exhibiting macro structural features similar to historical bottoms. While further confirmation is still needed, multiple indicators suggest that the market may be in the process of bottoming formation.