Analysts note that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold returns has reached 0.59, the highest since 2020. However, Bitcoin's correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is only -0.17, compared to gold's -0.41, suggesting Bitcoin may have stronger "hard asset" appeal amid rising yields. But correlations do not guarantee immunity from macro risks.
On September 7, analysts said that as fiscal worries drove global bond yields higher, Bitcoin and gold kept moving more closely together. The data puts the 90-day return correlation coefficient between the two assets at 0.59, its highest mark since 2020.
But Bitcoin looks more independent when you measure sensitivity to moves in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Its 90-day correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at just -0.17, versus gold's -0.41. Put simply, higher bond yields appear to weigh more heavily on gold.
Analysts say that points to a weaker link between Bitcoin and traditional bond markets, and suggests it may have a better shot at decoupling when conventional financial markets face pressure from things like rising yields. Still, shifts in correlation do not mean Bitcoin can fully escape macro risks.
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