Bitget’s UEX daily report on Aug. 4 framed the session around three market drivers: a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strong rally in U.S. large-cap tech, and mixed price action across crypto assets. Trump’s latest comments on Iran talks weighed on crude’s geopolitical premium, while Amazon crossed the $3 trillion market-cap mark and Palantir surged after posting stronger-than-expected quarterly results.
Top developments
Citadel Securities says the force behind record U.S. stocks remains intact
Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, said the forces pushing U.S. stocks to record highs are still “firmly in place,” even after retail speculation cooled. In his view, the market is shifting away from pure flow-driven trading and toward earnings, corporate demand and the macro backdrop.
The report said leveraged ETF assets have fallen 28% to $154 billion, and lower financing costs point to easing pressure on Wall Street. Strong earnings have continued to beat expectations, valuations have become more attractive, and buyback demand may accelerate as the earnings blackout window ends.
Bitget’s report said institutions still see fundamentals as support for risk appetite, though sensitivity to the Federal Reserve path remains high and near-term volatility still depends on incoming data and geopolitical developments.
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz could reopen by tomorrow, crude pulls back
Trump said on Aug. 3 Eastern Time that the first phase of talks with Iran is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the second phase is denuclearization, adding that the U.S. position remains firm and Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. He also said the strait could reopen by tomorrow at the latest.
Trump said talks had already begun and that more meetings would take place in the coming days. He also criticized Iran for publicly denying discussions while claiming control of the strait, and said the waterway is currently under a U.S. Navy blockade.
Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, responded that Iran would never allow the U.S. to open a non-Iranian shipping route through Hormuz, and said any deployed warships would be treated as targets.
The report said expectations of easing tensions quickly pushed down the crude risk premium, sending WTI and Brent sharply lower. Actual progress in negotiations and whether shipping through the strait resumes remain the key short-term variables for oil prices.
White House plans AI company meeting as 25 states sue over tariffs
The White House is set to host an artificial intelligence company meeting on Tuesday, with representatives from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and Meta invited to review a completed voluntary AI safety testing framework and discuss the next steps.
Separately, 25 U.S. states have filed suit against the administration’s latest tariff measures, arguing that they exceed statutory authority and bypass required investigative procedures. The report also said Japan’s latest round of yen intervention may have cost about $87 billion.
According to the report, progress on an AI governance framework could reduce long-term uncertainty, the tariff lawsuits add policy execution risk, and U.S.-Japan coordinated intervention may help steady near-term foreign exchange expectations.
Market recap
Commodities and FX
Spot gold was about $4,050 an ounce, up 0.2%. Spot silver traded around $58.0 an ounce, up 0.14%. WTI crude was around $80.3 a barrel, up 0.61%, and Brent crude was around $79.58 a barrel, up 0.45%. The U.S. Dollar Index stood near 100.026, up 0.07%.
Bitget said Trump’s remark that Hormuz could reopen by tomorrow sharply reduced the geopolitical premium in oil and eased near-term inflation concerns. Gold and silver diverged against that backdrop, while the dollar stayed relatively stable. The report described the cross-asset chain in straightforward terms: easing geopolitics, lower oil, cooling inflation expectations at the margin, and firmer risk appetite.
Crypto
BTC traded around $62,420, up 0.2%, while ETH changed hands near $1,850, down 1.14%. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.27 trillion, up 1.1%.
Total liquidations over the past 24 hours were about $244 million, including $128 million in short liquidations. The Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map showed a clear split in leverage positioning around $63,388. Cumulative long liquidation volume below that level was about $25 million, while cumulative short liquidation volume above it had risen to about $13 million. Short liquidations were clustered in the $64,000 to $65,500 range, while larger long liquidation pressure sat in the $62,000 to $63,000 area.
On ETF flows, spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $265 million the previous day, while current dynamic net inflows were $58 million. The report said easing geopolitical tension and a rebound in U.S. tech improved broad risk appetite, but crypto still lagged. It also noted that softer ETF flows have capped upside follow-through.
U.S. indexes and megacap tech
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,178.41, up 1.32% and marking a new stage high. The S&P 500 closed at 7,600.50, up 1.48%. The Nasdaq finished at 25,913.90, up 2.13%.
Among major tech names, Nvidia closed at $206.64, up 2.93%; Apple at $303.42, down 1.78%; Microsoft at $487.65, up 4.93%; Alphabet at $373.51, up 4.88%; Amazon at $284.02, up 4.58%; Meta at $590.24, up 6.02%; and Tesla at $322.08, up 3.49%.
The report said all three major indexes rose Monday, while the Magnificent Seven index climbed 3.6% for its best single-day move since late March. Amazon’s valuation moved above $3 trillion for the first time. Meta gained more than 6%, Microsoft and Google rose close to 5%, and Nvidia and Tesla followed. Bitget attributed the move to easing geopolitical stress and a repair in AI sentiment, with cloud and large-cap tech leading while Apple lagged.
Sector moves
In cloud computing and large-cap tech, Amazon rose about 5% and moved above a $3 trillion market value, Meta gained 6%, and Microsoft and Google climbed about 5%. The report said capital kept rotating into names tied to delivered earnings.
In optical communications and compound semiconductors, Applied Optoelectronics rose 17%, AXT Inc Inc gained 14%, and Lumentum and Coherent rose 9%. The report linked the move to improving expectations for AI data-center optical module demand and a sharp rebound after prior weakness.
In AI application software, Reddit climbed 10%, Snowflake rose 5%, and Palantir jumped after the close. Bitget said investors favored software commercialization narratives, with Palantir’s results lifting sentiment further.
Single-stock focus
Amazon: market value tops $3 trillion for the first time
Bitget said Amazon shares rose roughly 4.6% to 5.6% on Monday, pushing its market capitalization above $3 trillion for the first time. The report added that Amazon had already completed its full $50 billion investment in OpenAI and held about a 5% stake, while AWS continued to post strong growth.
The report said the milestone reflects market recognition of long-term demand for cloud and AI infrastructure. Capital is still assigning a premium to names that combine delivered earnings with strategic positioning. It added that AWS growth and the match between spending and returns remain the key items to watch after the valuation milestone.
Palantir: big earnings beat sends shares up more than 14% after hours
Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1.94 billion, above the $1.81 billion expected, and adjusted EPS of $0.41, above the $0.35 expected. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion and lifted adjusted operating profit guidance to $4.89 billion to $4.90 billion. Its shares rose more than 14% after hours.
Bitget said the combination of a quarterly beat and stronger guidance reinforced the AI software monetization narrative. In the report’s reading, investors are more willing to pay for software revenue that is already visible and verifiable. The next questions are order visibility and whether margin improvement can continue.
Meta: up more than 6% as tech sentiment improves
Meta rose about 5.2% to 6% on Monday, helped by a broader recovery in risk appetite across technology shares and a rebound in AI sentiment. The report noted that the stock had previously pulled back on concern over future spending commitments approaching $700 billion. It said the market is reassessing the balance between long-term investment and the resilience of Meta’s advertising business.
According to the report, capital spending discipline, AI monetization efficiency, ad margins and user growth remain the core pricing drivers from here.
Google: up nearly 5%, moves to No. 2 globally by market cap
Google rose about 4.7% to 5%, with total market value moving past Apple to rank second globally at about $4.51 trillion. The report said investor attention returned to search and cloud, and improving AI sentiment helped lift valuations. It added that cloud growth and commercialization of in-house TPU chips remain key areas to monitor.
Nvidia: rises nearly 3% in the rebound
Nvidia gained about 2.9% to 3%, with its market capitalization moving back above $5 trillion. The report said results from cloud providers and easing geopolitical stress improved the broader tone for technology, but Nvidia, as a core hardware supplier, remains sensitive to the return cycle on downstream capital spending. Near-term moves still depend on customer capex guidance and the competitive picture.
Market and project updates
- The Solana Foundation is hiring for several senior roles, including head of stablecoins, general manager of the AI ecosystem, head of institutional growth for Greater China, head of institutional growth for Japan, and head of DeFi growth, signaling a strategic push into AI, stablecoins and Asian institutional markets.
- Strategy founder Michael Saylor wrote on X: “When I say ‘never sell your Bitcoin,’ I am speaking as one saver to another. I have never sold any of my bitcoin, not even one satoshi. Strategy is a public company, not my personal wallet. Since 2020, the company has disclosed that it may buy or sell BTC for capital management. Our shared conviction in bitcoin remains unchanged.”
- On Aug. 4, SK hynix said it had jointly released the first standard specification for next-generation high-bandwidth flash, or HBF, with SanDisk. The specification defines two capacity configurations using 8-layer and 16-layer NAND chip stacks, supports up to 512GB, and sets bandwidth standards across Grade 1 to Grade 3, covering roughly 0.4 TB/s to 3.0 TB/s.
- The report said strong openings for Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey are drawing audiences back to theaters, lifting movie theater operator shares on Monday.
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said bitcoin can provide market discipline and that he wished he had understood bitcoin’s transformative potential earlier, according to Bitcoin Archive.
This week’s calendar
Aug. 4
The U.S. is due to release June JOLTS job openings, the trade balance and factory orders. AMD is scheduled to report after the close, and SpaceX is set to release its first earnings report as a listed company. McDonald’s, Caterpillar and Pfizer are due before the open.
Aug. 5
The U.S. will release the July ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are due before the open. SanDisk and Western Digital will report after the close. Circle, Disney, AppLovin, Figma and IonQ are also on the earnings calendar.
Aug. 6
The U.S. will publish weekly initial jobless claims and Challenger layoff data. SpaceX is set for a large unlock of about 9.115 billion shares, with the report saying the implied value is close to $100 billion. Federal Reserve officials Musalem and Barkin are scheduled to speak. AAOI and MP will report after the close.
Aug. 7
The U.S. will release July nonfarm payrolls, expected at 90,000 versus a prior reading of 57,000, and the unemployment rate, expected at 4.3% versus 4.2% previously. The report said a payroll reading above 100,000 could strengthen confidence in the labor market and raise bets on a September rate hike. New York Fed one-year inflation expectations are also due, and OKLO and VST are scheduled to report before the open.
Bitget said the main themes for U.S. equities this week are July payrolls, Federal Reserve signals, SpaceX’s first earnings report and large unlock, and earnings from AMD, SanDisk and Western Digital tied to AI storage demand. The report expects volatility to increase.
Institutional views cited in the report
The report said analysts broadly see Trump’s statement that Hormuz could reopen by tomorrow as a key factor in lowering oil’s risk premium and easing inflation concerns, which in turn supports risk assets. Amazon’s move above $3 trillion and Palantir’s earnings beat were presented as further signs that AI commercialization is being validated. Citadel Securities, meanwhile, said the force behind record U.S. equities remains intact.
For crypto, the report said market performance remains relatively slow to catch up and ETF flows are weak. Its bottom line was simple: easing geopolitical tension and delivered earnings are the current market anchors, while negotiation progress and corporate results remain the next points to watch.