September CPI has been released, and Blockcast said the headline reading was broadly in line with expectations, while core inflation came in hotter than forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% from the previous month, above the 0.2% estimate, and increased 2.6% from a year earlier, compared with an expected 2.5%. Headline CPI rose 3.7% year over year, also above the 3.6% consensus.
The article also pointed to a turn in crypto ETF flows. On Oct. 13, Bitcoin ETFs saw $176 million in net inflows, while Ether ETFs brought in $24.8 million. Ether products also ended a 10-day stretch of net outflows.
According to the piece, funds are still buying on weakness, which suggests that even if the market keeps pulling back, the downside may be limited. It added that the probability of slipping back into a bear market is relatively low. During this decline, contract positions increased, which the article said indicates that short positions are still being opened, so the pullback may not necessarily signal a break in the broader trend.
Price zone and macro events in focus
For investors looking to buy the dip, the article identified the $75,000 to $80,000 range as a better entry area. It described that range as consistent with a normal correction within a bullish trend.
It highlighted two upcoming time points. The first is tonight at 20:30, when retail sales and PPI are due. The article said market consensus for PPI is around +0.5% month over month. The second is tomorrow at 11:30, when Warsh, described in the article as the Federal Reserve chair, is scheduled to appear in a public conversation at the IMF annual meeting. The piece called that one of the more important public signals before the FOMC meeting.
Blockcast said that if retail sales and PPI also come in hot, pressure on BTC is likely to continue.
Rate expectations and oil
The article said the probability of a rate hike in October is about 54%, while the probability of at least one hike before December is above 95%. It also noted that crude oil has risen 9.1% over the past month, pushing costs higher. As long as oil does not fall, the piece said, it may be difficult for both crypto assets and U.S. stocks to move straight up.
The original article carried a disclaimer saying the content reflects only the author’s personal views, does not represent the position of Blockcast, is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. It said investors should make their own decisions and trades, and that neither the author nor Blockcast would be responsible for direct or indirect losses resulting from those trades.
