Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Tuesday morning as polls opened for the U.S. midterm elections. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, the asset was down about 0.6% on the day and roughly $30,000 below where it traded one year ago.
The vote will decide control of Congress and, with it, the path forward for the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill that passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and then failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on Sept. 15. If Congress does not act before the new session begins on Jan. 3, the bill expires and would need to be introduced again.
Prediction markets on Kalshi assign Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and a 74% chance of taking the Senate. A Democratic Senate would likely put Sen. Elizabeth Warren in line to chair the Banking Committee. CNBC reported that crypto groups spent more than $200 million on the midterms. Analysts at TD Cowen said a Democratic sweep is the most likely outcome and the least favorable one for the industry, while a divided Congress could still leave room for a narrower agreement.
A week of selling before the vote
Bitcoin entered the election period after a largely one-way move lower. The price started November near $78,500 and has lost about $2,000 since then. October ended down about 7%, marking a second consecutive October decline.
On Oct. 28, after a hawkish Federal Reserve hold and weak earnings from Alphabet and Samsung, bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time in weeks. About $356 million in leveraged positions were liquidated during that move.
The bigger shock came a day later. On Oct. 29, attackers that the FBI attributes to North Korea drained about $6.3 billion from Binance’s hot wallets, described in the report as the largest crypto theft on record. Bitcoin initially held up, but it fell about 4% on Friday, and more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. SoSoValue data showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $643.3 million in outflows that day, the largest single-day withdrawal since June 25. Another $399 million left on Monday.
Bitcoin recovered to $78,491 late Sunday before slipping again on Monday and Tuesday. Traders are watching support between $76,264 and $76,476, a zone that lines up with the 200-day exponential moving average. Below that sits the September low of $74,967. The first resistance above is the 50-day EMA near $80,800. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 37 on Monday, placing sentiment in fear territory.
Oil, Iran and a Fed still on a tightening path
The broader macro setting has offered little relief. On Oct. 28, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with two officials dissenting in favor of a hike. That followed a September increase, the first rate hike since July 2023. Polymarket put the odds of a December hike near 71%.
September PCE inflation came in at 3.6% year over year, while third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.36% in early October, its highest level since 2002, before easing to about 4.91% on Monday.
Energy remains central to the inflation picture. CNBC reported that Brent crude fell 7.7% on Monday to $104.66 a barrel after Iran and the U.S. signaled openness to talks, its biggest one-day drop since July. Part of that move reversed on Tuesday, with Brent back near $106.60 after reports of a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude above $100 and headline inflation elevated, leaving the Fed on a tightening path.
Equities have added to the pressure. The Nasdaq dropped 2.9% on Friday, its worst day since June, after results from Intel and Amazon raised questions about AI capital spending. The index lost 5.3% in October. Through this selloff, bitcoin has traded in line with technology stocks rather than against them.
What traders are watching next
The calendar remains busy. The October jobs report is due Friday, with consensus near 65,000 after September’s 29,000. October CPI follows on Nov. 10, and the Fed’s next rate decision is scheduled for Dec. 9. Binance’s next proof-of-reserves snapshot is due Wednesday.
Options markets remain relatively calm. Deribit’s DVOL index is near 36.5, a sign that traders are not pricing in large swings. Seasonality points the other way: bitcoin fell 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022, the two most recent midterm years, and both declines came during bear markets.
This article first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Micah Zimmerman.
