Bank of America Securities said the memory supercycle is still in place and expects Samsung Electronics to announce a large shareholder return plan built around a special dividend and share repurchases. The firm estimated the special dividend could exceed KRW 30 trillion, while the buyback could be more than KRW 40 trillion.
The view came from BofA’s global memory technology weekly report dated Aug. 7. The bank raised its 2026 global DRAM industry revenue forecast to $57.3 billion and sees that figure climbing to $84.7 billion in 2027 and $91.7 billion in 2028. It also said that although SK hynix posted only a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase in second-quarter DRAM ASP, below the 45% to 70% gains seen at peers, a faster 25% rebound could arrive in the third quarter, with HBM4 shipments becoming more visible.
BofA lifts memory forecasts for 2026 through 2028
Under the updated model, BofA expects global DRAM industry revenue to reach $57.3 billion in 2026, up 328% year on year. It then projects $84.7 billion in 2027, up 48%, before a modest pullback to $91.7 billion in 2028, a decline of about 8%.
For NAND, the bank forecasts industry revenue of $35.75 billion in 2026, up 341% year on year, followed by $46.75 billion in 2027, up 31%. It then expects a decline of about 14% in 2028.
On pricing, BofA expects average DRAM ASP for the industry to rise 8% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, with NAND up 3%. After that, it sees pricing holding steady or moving through a mild correction in 2027. Even so, the average ASP for full-year 2027 is expected to remain above 2026 levels because the first-half 2026 base is lower. For 2028, BofA said the decline in ASP should be read as a mild correction rather than a hard landing, with industry profitability still staying at elevated levels.
Bit growth is projected at 25% for DRAM in 2026, then 19% in both 2027 and 2028. For NAND, BofA expects 20%, 19% and 19% over the same three years.
HBM stays at the center of the cycle
BofA said HBM demand remains the main pillar supporting the memory supercycle. It forecasts the HBM market at $7.74 billion in 2026, up 124% year on year, and $15.28 billion in 2027, up 98%.
HBM’s share of total DRAM shipments is expected to rise from 8.5% in 2025 to 11.7% in 2026 and 14.1% in 2027. On pricing, HBM ASP is projected to increase 30% in 2026 to $14.6 per GB, then another 38% in 2027 to $20.2 per GB.
BofA expects SK hynix to keep its lead in HBM shipments, but said Samsung’s share of HBM wafer capacity could catch up with or even exceed SK hynix in 2026 and 2027.
NAND spot prices rebound harder than expected, with DRAM also higher
The report said NAND spot pricing was unexpectedly strong this week. Products in the 512Gb to 1Tb range rose 5% to 6%, while 256Gb products gained more than 10%. BofA linked that move to inventory builds by second- and third-tier OEMs preparing new models for September and the fourth-quarter peak season.
DRAM spot prices also moved higher, rising 1% to 2% from the prior period, which the report translated into a roughly 20% to 40% quarterly increase. Taken together, BofA said spot pricing has outperformed normal seasonal patterns and supply for conventional DRAM and NAND remains tight.
Elsewhere in the data, Nanya Technology reported July revenue of TWD 44 billion, up 49% month on month and 720% year on year. South Korea’s semiconductor exports reached $42 billion in July, down 9% from the prior month but still up 179% year on year. BofA’s memory indicator stood at 183 in June, still near historical highs and well above the mid-cycle level of 100 and the previous-cycle level of 130.
Samsung shareholder returns come into focus
BofA expects Samsung Electronics to provide more details on buybacks and cash dividends soon. Based on comments from the company’s CFO on the July 30 earnings call, Samsung plans to use 50% of 2024-2026 free cash flow for shareholder returns after subtracting the KRW 10 trillion in annual dividends already paid each year.
BofA said the implementation could include a special dividend of more than KRW 30 trillion in the third or fourth quarter, a share repurchase program of more than KRW 40 trillion launched in the first half of 2027, and an annual dividend of about KRW 30 trillion to be paid in April 2027. The report also said Samsung may need more than KRW 30 trillion in treasury shares for special employee awards.
The bank added that it expects SK hynix to direct 50% of free cash flow to shareholder returns as well, with buybacks potentially outweighing cash dividends.
HBM capacity expansion continues
On capacity, BofA forecasts HBM wafer capacity at 476,000 wafers per month in 2026, equivalent to 22.6% of total DRAM capacity. It sees that rising to 741,000 wafers per month in 2027, or 26.6% of the total.
Samsung’s share of HBM wafer capacity is projected to increase from 37% in 2025 to 39% in 2027, close to SK hynix at 40%. In product mix, HBM4 and HBM4e are expected to lead in 2026 and 2027, while HBM5 and higher-end products should begin gradual penetration from 2027.
Report attribution and disclaimer
The original article said it was a summary and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage report from Bank of America Securities dated Aug. 7, 2026, combined with public market information. It also stated that the ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts and related judgments cited in the piece are the views of the brokerage analysts and represent only the position of their institution, not the view of Chaoxiang Research, and do not constitute investment advice.
The original article also included a risk reminder, saying markets involve risk, decisions should be made independently, and the content should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any security.
