On-chain analyst Murphy said on Aug. 14 that BTC purchased in 2025 is mostly underwater, and the reduction in those holdings likely reflects loss-making sales rather than wallet migration. Data shows the 2025 cohort now holds about 4.77 million BTC, down 41.5% from a peak in December last year. The decline was rapid before February but has since slowed while retaining a steady slope. Murphy sees this group as the largest potential supply source in the current market. In comparison, coins from 2024, 2023 and 2022 are still in profit, and their distribution curves have flattened, indicating reduced selling pressure from long-term holders. Historical patterns from the last two bear markets show high-position supply fell by about 51% in 2022 and 62% in 2018 from prior highs. If history repeats, the 2025 cohort could shrink by 50-60% by the bottom, leaving room for further decline from the current 41.5%. However, the estimate excludes BTC bought by spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, which are largely locked up and could lower actual supply pressure.
On-chain analyst Murphy said on Aug. 14 that nearly all BTC purchased in 2025 is now held at a loss. Excluding wallet migration, the shrinking size of that cohort likely reflects investors selling at a loss.
Data shows the 2025 buying group still holds about 4.77 million BTC, down 41.5% from its peak in December last year. The decline unfolded in two phases: a fast drawdown before February, followed by a slower but steady decrease since then. Murphy described the 2025 coins as possibly the largest potential supply source in the current market.
By contrast, BTC accumulated in 2024, 2023 and 2022 remains in profit, and those holders have largely finished distributing their high-position supply. The flattening curves suggest selling pressure from long-term holders is fading.
Historical patterns offer context. At the bottom of the 2022 bear market, BTC bought at 2021 highs had fallen by roughly 51%. In the 2018 bottom, the 2017 high-position supply decreased by about 62%. If this cycle follows a similar path, Murphy expects the 2025 cohort to shrink by 50-60% by the bear market low. The current 41.5% drop implies more room for distribution.
The analysis, however, does not factor in BTC purchased by spot ETFs and MicroStrategy. Those institutional holdings are mostly locked up for the long term, which could lower the actual supply pressure on the market.
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