ChainCatcher reported that whale trader "Set 10 Big Goals First," known on X as @jasonleo, argued that the key takeaway from Bitcoin’s latest pullback is not the size of the decline but why it has been limited to roughly 5% despite several macro headwinds hitting at once. In his post, he pointed to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield nearing 5.7% and the 10-year yield at about 5.3%, while expectations for another rate hike this year have picked up. He also cited rising oil prices and renewed inflation pressure.
According to jasonleo, price action itself carries information. He said Bitcoin had previously fallen more than 10% on a single macro negative factor, but this time it has not shown obvious technical damage even with multiple pressures building at the same time. He compared the current setup with Bitcoin’s earlier bottoming phase around $58,000, saying both periods shared signs of weaker selling after bad news had been largely absorbed. Even so, he said the market remains in a strong trend.
For positioning, he said he does not currently expect BTC to fall straight to $78,000 or even $74,000. He identified $79,000 as a level to watch for trimming exposure, $78,000 on a daily close as the point to exit remaining long positions, and said he would keep holding longs if those key levels remain intact.
According to ChainCatcher, whale trader "Set 10 Big Goals First" (@jasonleo) said in a late-night post that the most important part of Bitcoin’s latest pullback is not the decline itself, but "why it only fell this much."
He said the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has moved close to 5.7%, while the 10-year yield is around 5.3%. At the same time, expectations for another rate hike this year have strengthened, and both oil prices and inflation pressure have started rising again. Even with several macro negatives arriving together, BTC has pulled back by only about 5%.
Price reaction is the main signal he is watching
jasonleo said the market’s reaction to news is itself important information. In the past, Bitcoin could drop more than 10% when a single macro negative factor appeared. This time, with several headwinds pressing on the market at once, the price still has not shown obvious damage. In his view, that points to a degree of resilience in the current uptrend.
He also compared the current move with Bitcoin’s earlier bottoming phase near $58,000, saying both periods showed a similar pattern: selling pressure eased after negative news had been fully released. He added that the market is still in a strong trend.
$79,000 and $78,000 are his key levels
On positioning, jasonleo said he does not currently think BTC will fall directly to $78,000 or even $74,000. He set $79,000 as the level to watch for reducing exposure.
- If BTC falls below $79,000, he will start trimming positions.
- If BTC closes below $78,000 on the daily chart, he will exit all remaining long positions and wait for the next entry opportunity.
- If those key levels hold, he will continue to keep long positions.
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