At the macro level, marginal changes in Fed policy expectations continue to dominate risk asset pricing. After a period of consolidation, the crypto market is witnessing concentrated divergence between bulls and bears at key prices. This weekly review uses multi-timeframe structure analysis combined with quantitative model signals to assess the weekly outlook for BTC and HYPE, and formulates specific short-to-medium-term trading plans. All content in this article is personal technical analysis records, serving only as a reference framework for personal trading decisions and review basis, and does not constitute any form of investment advice. Markets are always more complex than predictions; strict risk management and stop-loss discipline remain the top priority.
BTC Hourly Structure Analysis
From the 4-hour structure, since the bounce from the June 5 low of $59,100, price action can be subdivided into a five-wave structure: 36-37, 37-38, 38-39, 39-40, 40-41. The overall trend shows a short-term rising channel (blue in the chart): the upper rail is formed by connecting the rebound highs (points 37 and 39), and the lower rail by connecting the adjustment lows (points 36 and 38). The chart shows that price broke below the lower rail at point 40, and the current (40-41) rebound can be seen as a retest confirmation of the broken lower rail. If point 41 fails to hold above the lower rail, the probability of price retesting the previous low of $59,100 increases significantly.
Key support levels: first support at the $59,000-60,000 area (previous key support), second support near $55,000 (previous key support).
BTC Weekly Trading Strategy
The position monitoring model shows that price has effectively broken below the "bull-bear channel", confirming a bearish market structure. Last week, according to the plan, we entered a short position near $64,500 with an initial medium-term position of about 20% of total capital. We will adhere to stop-loss discipline and wait for the next opportunity to add positions. Short-term strategy: use 30% of position with stop-loss, look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles). To dynamically respond to complex market evolution, we have prepared three specific operation plans A/B/C in advance.
HYPE Hourly Structure Analysis
On the 4-hour cycle, HYPE corrected from its June 2 high of $75.87 (point 47) and found support near $52.62 (point 50) on June 10, a correction lasting about 9 trading days. A strong upward wave (50-51) then broke the previous high in 6 trading days, reaching a new high of $76.94 since the January rally, indicating strong bullish momentum. The decline from the new high shows a clear three-wave adjustment structure (51-52, 52-53, 53-54). Price has now retraced to the key support area of $64-66.
Key resistance: first resistance near $77, second resistance at $80-82. When HYPE price retests the $64-66 or deeper $52-54 key support areas and shows stabilization signals combined with bottom signals from two models, a small long position can be considered with position size controlled below 30% and strict stop-loss discipline.
Financial markets are changing rapidly, and all analysis and trading strategies need dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and strategies in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and serve only as personal trading logs. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets are risky, invest carefully, and do not make decisions based on this.
