At the macro level, marginal changes in Fed policy expectations continue to drive risk asset pricing. After a period of consolidation, the crypto market has seen the divergence between bulls and bears concentrate at critical price levels. This weekly review follows the established framework: based on multi-timeframe structural analysis combined with quantitative model signals, it evaluates the coming week for BTC and HYPE and formulates specific short- to medium-term trading plans. All content herein is a personal technical analysis record, serving only as a reference framework and review basis for personal trading decisions. It does not constitute any form of investment advice. Markets are always more complex than forecasts; strict risk management and stop-loss discipline remain the top priority.
Bitcoin: Channel Retest Confirmation Extends Bearish Pattern
On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the June 5 low of $59,100 can be subdivided into a five-wave structure (waves 36-41). The overall trend formed a short-term rising channel: the upper rail connects points 37 and 39, the lower rail connects points 36 and 38. Price has broken below the lower rail at point 40, and the ongoing rebound (wave 40-41) is regarded as a retest of that broken channel lower rail. If point 41 fails to hold above that lower rail, the probability of another retest of the prior low near $59,100 increases significantly.
Key support levels: first support zone at $59,000–$60,000 (previous important support), second support around $55,000. Trading strategy: The position monitoring model shows price has effectively broken below the "bull-bear channel," confirming a bearish market structure. Short positions were initiated near $64,500 last week as per the plan, with an initial medium-term position of about 20% of total capital. Stop-loss discipline remains, awaiting further adding opportunities. For short-term trading, use 30% of capital with stop-loss set, seek spread opportunities based on support/resistance levels, and operate on 30-minute/60-minute cycles. Three specific contingency plans (A/B/C) have been prepared for dynamic responses to complex market developments.
HYPE: Three-Wave Decline Meets Support – Caution on Light Longs
On the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE began its correction from the June 2 high of $75.87 (point 47) and found support near $52.62 on June 10 (point 50), after about 9 trading days. It then entered a strong rally (waves 50-51), breaking the prior high in 6 trading days and reaching a new high of $76.94 since January, indicating powerful bullish momentum. The decline from the new high shows a clear three-wave corrective structure (51-52, 52-53, 53-54). Price has now pulled back to the critical support zone of $64–$66.
Key resistance: first resistance near $77, second resistance at $80–$82. When HYPE retests the $64–$66 zone or deeper support at $52–$54, if signs of stabilization appear, combined with bottom signals from two models, light long positions can be considered, but position size must be kept below 30% with strict stop-loss discipline.
Financial markets change rapidly; all analysis and strategies must be adjusted dynamically. The views, models, and strategies expressed herein originate from personal technical analysis and serve only as personal trading journal entries. They do not constitute investment advice or action recommendations. Market risk exists; invest with caution. Do not base decisions solely on this content.
