This week's focus revolves around two critical questions: can Bitcoin's short-term bounce effectively break above the upper band of its descending channel after its daily structure weakens, and has the seven-wave rally in HYPE from its low reached its terminus? Below, we systematically examine the current formations of BTC and HYPE across multiple timeframes and lay out mid- and short-term trading strategies for the week ahead.
BTC Daily Channels Exert Dual Pressure, Structure Weakens
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has oscillated higher within an ascending channel (yellow) since the low on February 6, 2026. The channel's lower boundary connects the February 6 and March 29 lows, while the upper boundary runs parallel through the March 17 high. After hitting $82,850 on May 6, the price entered a short-term descending channel (blue), where the upper band links the May 14 and May 26 bounce highs, and the lower band connects the May 7 and May 23 lows. Currently, BTC has lost the median line of the ascending channel and is heading toward the lower band of that channel. Meanwhile, the price briefly found support at the descending channel's lower band near $72,500 and is now in a weak corrective bounce toward that channel's upper band. Our overall assessment is that the ongoing bounce is merely a repair of short-term oversold conditions, targeting the upper band of the descending channel. Because the price has already fallen below the ascending channel's median, the broader technical structure has turned bearish. Once the bounce subsides, the trend is likely to resume downward and test the support strength of the ascending channel's lower band.
BTC 4-Hour Pivot Evolution and Bounce Structure
On the 4-hour chart, the correction from the $82,850 high on May 6 can be broken down into a ten-segment structure (segments 27-28 through 36-37), enclosing two descending pivots. Pivot D is formed by the overlapping waves 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31; Pivot E comprises the overlapping waves 32-33, 33-34, and 34-35. The market is currently navigating the 36-37 bounce. If the price encounters resistance in the $75,000–$76,000 area and fails to break through, the market is highly likely to extend the choppy downtrend and probe the $69,500–$70,500 support zone.
BTC Key Levels and A/B Short-Term Plans
Key resistance lies in two zones: the first at $75,000–$76,000 (near the lower edge of Pivot E), the second at $78,500–$79,500 (around the upper and lower boundaries of both pivots). Core support levels to watch are $69,500–$70,500 and the $65,000 vicinity. Short-term trading uses a 30% position size with strict stop-losses, capitalizing on spreads between these levels. To dynamically respond to market complexity, we predefine A and B plans. Plan A: when the price rebounds to the $75,000–$76,000 area and shows exhaustion, confirmed by the quantitative model's top signal, establish a short position of no more than 30%. Set the initial stop above $77,000, and close the position gradually near key support levels when model signals align. Plan B: if the price breaks decisively below $69,500–$70,500 support accompanied by a model top signal, open a short of up to 30%, with the stop placed above $72,000, and exit as price reaches significant support.
HYPE's Seven-Wave Structure Reaches Terminal Phase with Strong Top Signals
In the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE has completed a seven-wave structure (segments 40-41 through 46-47) since the low of $38.14 on May 14, containing an ascending pivot formed by overlapping waves 43-44, 44-45, and 45-46. Previous weekly reviews warned that Point 45 exhibited momentum bearish divergence coupled with the spread trading model's top alert, creating a resonance that marked a short-term high. The subsequent drop from $64.75 to $56.30 yielded a maximum decline of 13.05%. Comparing the pivot exit wave (46-47) with the entry wave (42-43), the upward momentum is visibly weakening, making a momentum divergence highly probable. Our proprietary spread trading model indicates that Point 47 has triggered a strong top warning (red dot + white dot).
HYPE Short-Term Strategy: Buy on Dips, Avoid Chasing Rallies
The main task this week is to observe whether Point 47's clear top signal coincides with momentum divergence. If this occurs and the price subsequently breaks below the $62.5–$64.57 support zone, Point 47 can be confirmed as the terminus of the uptrend from May 14. Short-term operations should follow the principle of "buying on dips, avoiding chasing rallies," with a focus on how price reacts to the $62.5–$64.75 area. If this zone shows signs of stabilization and bottom signals from both models, a light long position may be initiated, with size strictly capped at 30% and a disciplined stop-loss. Should the price break decisively below this region, the short-term correction will escalate into a daily-level adjustment, extending both time and space, with the initial downside target around $54–$56.3.
Last Week's Trade Review: Short Captured 5.07%
Following signals from the spread trading and momentum quantification models, a single short-term short trade was executed last week. Entry logic: as price rebounded to near $78,000 and showed exhaustion, candlesticks formed a bearish top pattern; the spread model issued a white-dot top warning, while the momentum model indicated a bearish divergence. A 30% short was established at $77,449. Exit logic: when the price declined to around $73,000, a bullish bottom pattern emerged; the spread model emitted a strong bottom alert (red dot + white dot) that resonated with the momentum model's bottom signal. The entire position was closed near $73,519, realizing a profit of approximately 5.07%.
Dynamic Stop-Loss and Risk Controls
Set the initial stop-loss immediately upon entering a trade. Once floating profit reaches 1%, move the stop to the entry price to secure principal. At 2% profit, slide the stop to the 1% profit level; thereafter, for every additional 1% gain, raise the stop by 1% to dynamically lock in profits. All analytical models and trading strategies presented here stem from personal technical analysis and serve solely as a trading journal. They do not constitute investment advice. Markets are highly uncertain; please make independent decisions and strictly manage risk.