Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000, while lowering its Ether forecast from $3,175 to $2,240. The bank said market conditions for both assets have weakened more than expected, with softer ETF demand and delays in US regulatory progress weighing on the outlook.
Bitcoin was recently trading near $58,900, one of its lowest levels since September 2024. Ether was around $1,586, a level last seen in April 2025. Both assets have fallen below their long-term moving averages. Selling pressure remains visible.
Citigroup slashes Bitcoin ETF net inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero
The sharpest change in the bank’s framework was its revision to expected net Bitcoin ETF inflows over the next 12 months, from $10 billion to zero. Citigroup also estimates that Bitcoin ETFs have posted roughly $3.3 billion in net outflows so far this year, cutting into what had previously been one of the market’s strongest sources of demand.
A spot ETF directly holds the underlying asset. In crypto, that structure gives institutional and traditional investors exposure to Bitcoin and other digital assets without having to manage wallets themselves. When those funds stop attracting capital, price assumptions usually change with them.
Bear case puts Bitcoin at $53,000 and Ether at $1,094
Citigroup also outlined a weaker scenario. If macroeconomic pressure persists and ETF outflows continue, the bank said Bitcoin could fall as low as $53,000 over the next 12 months, while Ether could slide to $1,094. That view sits below its base-case target and reflects a more negative set of assumptions.
The bank also pointed to slow movement on US crypto legislation and the possibility that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets may sell part of those positions. If that happens, confidence in the market could weaken again.
Institutional focus shifts from upside targets to lost buying power
Last year’s strong ETF inflows pushed many institutions to raise their projections. The latest downturn has changed that. Analysts are now spending less time asking how high Bitcoin can trade and more time measuring how much buying power has left the market.
Citigroup’s revision reflects that change in tone. The move was driven less by chart patterns alone and more by fund flows, regulatory timing, and a more cautious stance from investors.