CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), dated Aug. 4, shows that all reportable traders in CME standard Bitcoin futures were indeed slightly net long, but only by 420 contracts, or about 2,100 BTC. That was just 2.09% of open interest for the week.
He said the institutional tilt has not changed, but the size is small enough that it needs to be stated clearly because the figure does not reflect hedge funds alone.
Total reportables were only modestly net long
The latest CFTC positioning report uses Aug. 4 as its data date. In that report, CME standard Bitcoin futures showed Total Reportables net long 420 contracts. With each standard contract representing 5 BTC, that comes to roughly 2,100 BTC.
Ki Young Ju framed the data as a clarification of his earlier positioning view. In his telling, an institutional net long does not mean hedge funds as a single group turned bullish. It captures several categories of large traders that meet reporting thresholds.
How the four reportable groups were positioned
Ki Young Ju noted that Total Reportables includes more than hedge funds. It also covers asset managers, dealers, and other traders subject to reporting. In the CFTC’s financial futures trader report, participants in CME standard Bitcoin futures are divided into four categories. Open interest for the week of Aug. 4 stood at 20,143 contracts. Converted into BTC, the net positions were listed as follows:
- Dealers and intermediaries: net long 2,969 contracts, about 14,845 BTC
- Asset managers and institutional investors: net long 2,542 contracts, about 12,710 BTC
- Leveraged funds: net short 7,240 contracts, about 36,200 BTC
- Other reportables: net long 2,149 contracts, about 10,745 BTC
Combined, those four categories produce the 420-contract net long figure. The three long categories added up to 38,300 BTC, almost fully offset by the 36,200 BTC short held by leveraged funds, leaving only a narrow net long balance.
In Ki Young Ju’s wording, hedge funds map to the Leveraged Funds category in the CFTC report. As of Aug. 4, that group was still net short, with short positions equal to 57.0% of total open interest. The small net long in CME therefore came from dealer and asset-manager accounts, not from arbitrage-focused funds reversing into a net long stance.
Leveraged funds’ net short has narrowed over the past year
The article’s summary also says the net short position of leveraged funds, across standard and micro contracts, shrank from 72,424 BTC to 35,806 BTC over the past year, a decline of 50.6%.
Basis returns have fallen below Treasury yields
The piece says leveraged funds have long carried Bitcoin futures shorts not as an outright bearish bet, but as one leg of a basis trade. The structure is to buy spot Bitcoin and short futures at the same time, locking in the premium of futures over spot and collecting roll yield.
That strategy works when the futures basis sits above the risk-free rate. The article says annualized basis on major exchanges climbed above 20% during the 2021 bull market. Because of the structure of the trade, leveraged funds tend to appear persistently net short in futures. An arbitrage book does not naturally become net long.
That setup has weakened. The article cites CoinDesk as putting the annualized three-month futures basis at about 3%, while U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.19% for the 2-year, 4.65% for the 10-year, and 5.19% for the 30-year on Aug. 7. After accounting for counterparty risk and rolling friction, the return is described as roughly 1.2 percentage points lower than simply buying Treasuries.
Three-month basis has trailed the 2-year Treasury for six straight months
The article cites Aug. 3 statistics showing that the three-month basis has stayed below the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield every month since February 2026. It says this is the second such inversion on record.
The previous inversion ran from August 2022 to January 2023 and lasted about five months, ending after the cycle low in that period. This time, the stretch has reached a sixth month.
Two key questions highlighted in the report
What is CME Total Reportables?
It refers to the combined positions of all large traders that meet reporting thresholds in the CFTC commitments data, including dealers, asset managers, leveraged funds, and other reportables. For CME standard Bitcoin futures on Aug. 4, that line showed a net long of 420 contracts, or about 2,100 BTC.
Why have leveraged funds stayed short Bitcoin futures for so long?
The article’s answer is basis trading: buying spot while shorting futures to lock in the futures premium and collect roll yield. When the annualized three-month basis is about 3%, below the 4.19% yield on the 2-year Treasury, the trade becomes less attractive.
The article was compiled and written by Mickey Maoshu.