According to BlockBeats on June 11, CME FedWatch data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year stood at 69%. The data breaks down the probability by cumulative rate-hike size, with the largest share assigned to a relatively smaller increase.
25-basis-point scenario has the highest share
The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase was 43.4%, the highest among the listed scenarios. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase was 21.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point increase was 4.1%. A cumulative 100-basis-point increase carried a probability of 0.3%.
Together, these listed outcomes make up the 69% probability of Fed rate hikes within the year. A basis point is a standard unit used in interest-rate changes, with 1 basis point equal to 0.01 percentage point. The CME FedWatch data cited in the report reflects the rate-hike probability distribution as of June 11.