ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, reported that CME FedWatch data shows the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is now 64%, compared with 91% before the decision. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by July stands at 35.1%, up from 8.9% before the decision, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 1%, compared with 0% previously.
For December, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 14.2%, down from 38.2% before the decision. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 36.4%, compared with 43% before the decision. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 33.8%, compared with 16.2%; the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point hike is 13.5%, compared with 2.4%; and the probability of a cumulative 100-basis-point hike is 2.1%, compared with 0.1% before the decision.
CME FedWatch presents probability changes for different interest-rate paths based on pricing linked to rate futures. The latest figures show an adjustment in the distribution of July and December rate scenarios before and after the decision, with the share assigned to unchanged rates moving lower and the shares assigned to rate-hike scenarios moving higher.