ChainCatcher reported, citing Jinshi, that CME FedWatch shows a 61.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July. The same data puts the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase at 38.5%.
September Distribution Shifts Toward Hike Scenarios
For September, CME FedWatch shows the probability of rates remaining unchanged falling to 24.9%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase rises to 52.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is listed at 22.9%.
The figures indicate a change in the probability distribution between July and September within the CME FedWatch data. The no-change scenario moves from 61.5% in July to 24.9% in September, while the cumulative 25-basis-point hike scenario moves from 38.5% to 52.2%. The 50-basis-point cumulative hike scenario appears in the September distribution at 22.9%.