ChainCatcher reported, citing Jinshi, that CME FedWatch shows a dominant probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by June. According to the figures cited in the report, the probability of no rate change by June stands at 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%.
For July, CME FedWatch shows an 85.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged. The tool also lists a 12.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase and a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut.
CME FedWatch is referenced in the report as the source for the probability distribution around the Federal Reserve’s rate path. A basis point is a standard unit used for interest-rate changes, and 25 basis points equals 0.25 percentage points. The reported figures cover only the June and July time frames and the listed outcomes of no change, cumulative increase, and cumulative cut.