ChainCatcher, citing a report from Jinshi, said CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 98.4%. The same data places the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by June at 1.6%.
For July, CME FedWatch shows an 89.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is listed at 9.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.5%.
A basis point is a standard unit used to describe interest-rate changes, and 25 basis points equals 0.25 percentage points. The figures reported here are limited to the CME FedWatch probabilities for the June and July time frames, covering unchanged rates, a 25-basis-point cumulative hike, and a 25-basis-point cumulative cut.