ChainCatcher, citing a report from Jinshi, said CME FedWatch data now shows a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by July, compared with 91% before the decision. The same dataset puts the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase by July at 35.1%, up from 8.9% before the decision. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase by July is listed at 1%, compared with 0% before the decision.
For December, CME FedWatch shows the probability of rates remaining unchanged at 14.2%, down from 38.2% before the decision. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase by December is 36.4%, compared with 43% before the decision, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 33.8%, compared with 16.2% previously. The data also lists a 13.5% probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point increase by December, up from 2.4%, and a 2.1% probability of a cumulative 100-basis-point increase, compared with 0.1% before the decision.