ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, reported that CME FedWatch data shows a 99.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June. The same data places the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut in June at 0.5%.
The figures reflect the rate-path probabilities displayed by the CME FedWatch tool. A basis point is a standard unit used to measure changes in interest rates, with 25 basis points equal to 0.25 percentage points. In the June reading, the unchanged-rate scenario accounts for nearly all of the probability, while the 25-basis-point cut scenario is listed at only 0.5%.
For July, CME FedWatch shows a 92% probability that rates will remain unchanged. It also lists a 7.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is shown as 0%. Compared with the June reading, the July data still places the unchanged-rate outcome as the main scenario, alongside a 7.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase.