Coinbase has rolled out a regulated prediction markets platform across all 50 U.S. states, giving users a way to trade yes-or-no contracts tied to real-world outcomes inside the Coinbase app. The product went live on Jan. 28 through a partnership with Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated prediction market operator.
The move places event-based trading directly inside Coinbase’s main platform and widens its push beyond crypto exchange services. In these markets, contract prices reflect implied probability. A contract trading at 65 cents, for example, signals that traders see about a 65% chance of that outcome occurring.
42 visible markets generated about $18.3 million in daily volume
At launch, Coinbase users could access dozens of active contracts spanning crypto, politics, sports, economics, culture, weather, and entertainment. The report said 42 open markets were visible, covering everything from daily bitcoin price thresholds to tennis matches, college basketball games, the odds of a U.S. government shutdown, and even snowfall totals in New York City.
Those 42 markets alone showed combined 24-hour trading volume of roughly $18.3 million. Individual contracts often posted between $180,000 and $4.2 million in daily volume, with political and macroeconomic markets drawing the heaviest activity. Sports contracts also added a steady stream of liquidity to the lineup.
Bitcoin contracts remain a focal point, with 11% odds on $150,000 by May 2026
Crypto-linked markets were among the most closely watched. Daily bitcoin contracts asking whether BTC would trade above set thresholds at specific times — such as $85,750 or $86,250 by 5 p.m. EST — each logged more than $280,000 to $360,000 in 24-hour volume. That points to strong appetite for short-term positioning.
One longer-dated contract has attracted particular attention: When will bitcoin hit $150,000? The market settles on whether bitcoin trades above $149,999.99 by May 31, 2026, using CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real-Time Index. Traders are currently pricing that outcome at about 11%, showing limited conviction that BTC reaches that level within the next four months.
That contract alone has nearly $9.3 million in open interest and around $178,000 in recent daily volume. The article described participation as steady rather than overheated. Shorter-dated versions of the same question carry even lower implied probabilities.
Coinbase frames the product as a price-discovery venue
Outside crypto, contracts tied to Federal Reserve policy decisions, the timing of a new Fed chair announcement, and the odds of a U.S. government shutdown have also drawn daily volume ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. Coinbase executives have described prediction markets as a tool for price discovery, arguing that financial stakes can produce clearer signals than opinion polling.
The platform operates under federal oversight through Kalshi and Coinbase Financial Markets, a structure that sets it apart from offshore or unregulated rivals. Coinbase’s positioning is direct: prediction markets are being introduced as a mainstream financial product inside a broader multi-asset platform.