Consulting firm Crane Zeng has released a report estimating that U.S. users contributed a substantial amount of trading activity to offshore prediction markets, even though some offshore platforms are theoretically required to block U.S. users. According to the report, U.S. users generated approximately $11 billion to $34 billion in trading volume on offshore prediction markets, equal to 12.5% to 31.5% of total U.S. prediction market volume.
Polymarket Represents the Largest Estimated Share
At the platform level, the report estimates that Polymarket alone accounted for roughly $11 billion to $27 billion in related trading volume. Crane Zeng described this estimate as “conservative.” The figures were presented as a research estimate rather than as official platform disclosure, but they place Polymarket at the center of the report’s assessment of U.S. user activity on offshore prediction markets.
The report also includes a forward-looking projection. If the relative share between regulated markets and offshore markets remains unchanged, annual trading volume by U.S. users on offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion by 2030. That projection is tied to the stated condition that the relative market shares remain stable.
CFTC Stance and Offshore Restrictions
Prediction markets have grown rapidly over the past two years, with Kalshi and Polymarket named as key examples. The report is set against a regulatory backdrop in which the U.S. CFTC has recently taken a more relaxed stance toward domestic prediction markets, while unlicensed offshore platforms remain prohibited from offering services to U.S. users.
Polymarket was barred from operating in the United States in 2022 after serving U.S. customers without registration. Crane Zeng’s report places that history alongside its trading-volume estimates, stating that U.S. user activity on offshore prediction markets is still measured in a range of $11 billion to $34 billion despite blocking requirements and service restrictions.