Carta Report: Paper Recovery but No Cash
Carta's latest report titled "VC is back" belies a deeper reality: the recovery is in paper value (TVPI), not actual cash returned to LPs (DPI). Carta tracked 2,775 funds with ~$119.3 billion in assets. Median TVPI for almost every vintage year from 2017 to 2024 has risen for six consecutive quarters, signaling the end of the 2022-2023 valuation reset. However, the critical issue is that paper value has returned, but cash has not.
For 2019 and 2020 vintage funds, median DPI is only slightly above zero, and over half of these funds have not returned any cash to LPs—despite being five to six years old. Even older 2017 and 2018 vintage funds, nearing ten years and in the back half of their lifecycle, show less than 20% have reached a DPI of 1x (returning initial LP capital). The J-curve fails to complete its upward trajectory: valuations rise (as TVPI shows), but exits are stuck. The IPO window is barely open, M&A is selective, and many assets remain marked at high prices.
Institutions like PitchBook, Preqin, and Wellington all point to liquidity as the primary bottleneck. Secondary markets, continuation vehicles, and GP-led transactions are moving from niche to mainstream. Over the next 12-18 months, GPs with strong TVPI but near-zero DPI will face tough questions from LPs. Those who proactively manage liquidity paths (partial exits, secondaries, continuation funds) will win the next fundraising round.
Dispersion and Capital Concentration: Winner-Takes-All
Venture capital exhibits extreme dispersion. In nearly every vintage year, the 90th percentile net IRR exceeds 20%, while the 75th percentile trails below 15.5%. Median funds deliver mediocre returns (roughly 10% annualized over 10 years = 2.6x), while top-quartile funds achieve 20% annualized (6.2x). For LPs, manager selection is the single most important input.
Capital is concentrating rapidly: funds over $100 million captured 57% of all VC fundraising in 2025, up from 31% eight years ago. Most new funds are sub-$25 million, but larger funds absorb an increasing share each year. This creates a barbell structure: mega-funds raise on balance sheet and brand; truly differentiated micro-funds rely on edge strategies. The undifferentiated middle is a fundraising death zone. Crossover and generalist capital that flooded into private tech in 2021 is retreating to its core. Overall fundraising is stabilizing (Carta Q1 recorded 86 new funds raising $3.9 billion, the strongest start since 2022), but money flows to those with track records and away from everyone else.
Top 10 Crypto Fundraising Deals in June
- Securitize: ~$400M, SPAC merger/PIPE, RWA tokenization. BlackRock-backed tokenization leader listing on NYSE (ticker SECZ), clients include Apollo, KKR, Hamilton Lane, VanEck. Deal expected to close around July 1.
- Digital Asset: $355M strategic round, institutional infrastructure/L1. Led by a16z crypto at $2B valuation, with investors including Citadel Securities, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, BNP Paribas, HSBC, Apollo, Optiver, CME Ventures, S&P Global, SBI, SoFi, Coinbase Ventures, Polychain. Canton chain supports ~$6 trillion in tokenized assets.
- Morpho: $175M strategic round, DeFi lending. Joint lead by Paradigm, Ribbit Capital, a16z crypto at up to $2B valuation. Customizable lending markets with clients like Coinbase, Kraken, Anchorage, Galaxy. Largest DeFi round on record.
- Fomo: $75M Series B, consumer trading. Led by Index Ventures at $550M valuation. Non-custodial social trading app abstracting wallets, gas, bridging. 625K+ users, $4B trading volume.
- SignalPlus: $50M Series B, institutional derivatives infrastructure. Led by HashKey Capital at $500M valuation. Crypto options terminal akin to Bloomberg for options, serving Cumberland, FalconX, Galaxy Digital. Q4 2025 platform volume $160B.
- Allium: $40M Series B, on-chain data/analytics. Led by Amplify Partners, clients include Visa, Fed, a16z, Coinbase. Cleans and structures data across 150+ chains.
- Trace Finance: $32M Series A, stablecoin payments. Led by CoinFund, with Coinbase Ventures, Haun Ventures, Jump Capital, Paxos, Chainlink Labs. Brazil-based, processed over $10B institutional volume.
- EDGE Markets: $29.2M Series A, prediction market infrastructure. Led by CoinFund, providing high-throughput deposit accounts for CFTC-regulated venues and real-time payment rails reducing costs by 70%+.
- Onyx Odds: $20M Series A, prediction markets. Led by Kraken parent Payward at $220M valuation. Sports prediction app integrating crypto trading via Payward Services.
- Karta: $15M Series A, stablecoin/credit cards. Led by Galaxy Ventures, plus $125M credit facility. Issues US credit cards via WhatsApp for global travelers and high-net-worth non-residents. Revenue and volume grew 10x in 2025.
Additionally, El Dorado raised $9M Series A for its peer-to-peer stablecoin wallet targeting Latin America. Full June deal list is available at the original article link.
New Fund Announcements: Variant and Framework Expand to AI
Variant closed its fourth early-stage fund at $222M, centered on the "autonomy" thesis covering permissionless finance, crypto infrastructure, and agentic AI. Framework Ventures completed an oversubscribed $400M fourth fund (FVIV), with about half already deployed, expanding mandate from crypto (stablecoins, tokenization) to AI, robotics, energy, and fintech. LPs include an Ivy League endowment, sovereign wealth funds, and fund-of-funds.
Hackathons and Accelerator Updates
Upcoming events: ETHGlobal Lisbon 2026 (July 24-26), ETHOnline 2026 (September 4-16), Colosseum Fall Hackathon (September 28-November 2). Accelerators open for applications: Alliance DAO (ALL18 starting September 7), Colosseum Accelerator (rolling), Outlier Ventures Base Camp, Techstars Web3.
In summary, the crypto VC market is experiencing a structural dispersion where paper recovery masks a cash drought. Capital concentrates in top-tier funds, mid-tier funds struggle to survive. June fundraising highlights show tokenization, institutional infrastructure, and DeFi remain attractive, with AI-crypto crossover emerging as a new hotspot.