BlockBeats reported on July 19 that Chinese memory chip company ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, is set to debut on the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, 2026, with an initial valuation of about 580 billion yuan. The report said CXMT could become the world’s third-largest DRAM supplier and compiled a wide range of views on how its market value may perform after listing.
Valuation calls from banks, brokerages and analysts
UBS said in its latest research note that the DRAM market is likely to remain undersupplied until at least the second quarter of 2028. That outlook, according to the report, provides key support for market expectations that CXMT could command a valuation of 1 trillion yuan or more.
Zhang Xiaorong, president of the Institute of Deep Technology Research, said that if CXMT generates net profit of around 100 billion yuan this year, a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 20x to 25x, combined with sector momentum, would give the company a strong chance of reaching a trillion-yuan valuation after listing.
CNBC technology analyst Daniel Haylor said CXMT is well positioned, especially if severe shortages persist in the mobile memory segment. He added that the world’s three largest memory makers are shifting substantial capacity toward higher-margin HBM products, a move that could squeeze general-purpose DRAM supply further and create room for CXMT, as China’s DRAM leader, to expand and re-rate.
Veteran investment banker Wang Jiyue projected that CXMT could reach a valuation of 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan after listing, using SK Hynix as a reference point. The report also cited trailing twelve-month P/E ratios of 21.7x for Samsung Electronics and 21.3x for SK Hynix.
CITIC Securities said DRAM supply tightness may continue until at least 2027 and that price increases could run through the whole of 2026. In the report’s framing, that cycle view reinforces bullish expectations for a 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan post-listing valuation.
More aggressive upside scenarios
Reuters was cited as saying CXMT’s market capitalization is very likely to exceed 3 trillion yuan, or about $443 billion. In a more optimistic case tied to the AI upcycle and China’s technology self-reliance drive, the valuation could even reach 5 trillion yuan.
Several Chinese brokerages were described as broadly aligned around a 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan range after listing. The report said the main support behind those calls includes long-term DRAM and HBM demand from AI computing, CXMT’s status as China’s only domestic DRAM production platform, backing from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, and the broader import substitution theme. Some estimates in the report put a reasonable opening valuation range at 2 trillion to 2.5 trillion yuan.
Analysts cited by the Financial Times expect CXMT’s valuation could rise to as much as 3 trillion yuan, driven mainly by AI-led demand for memory chips and the company’s fast-growing share in the global DRAM market. The report characterized that view as an optimistic assessment by international analysts of the company’s growth story and structural opportunity set.
Some more bullish institutions and electronics-sector brokerage analysts argued that, under strong industry conditions and with the scarcity premium often given to semiconductor names in the A-share market, CXMT’s market value could temporarily move above 3 trillion yuan and even reach 4 trillion yuan. In an extreme scenario, it could go higher. The report said that thesis is based on expectations for strong 2026 earnings and valuation logic derived from comparisons with global peers.
Longer-term scenario analysis
A separate third-party market analysis cited in the report outlined a medium- to long-term case tied to the long-run benefits of AI infrastructure spending. Under assumptions that 2026-2027 revenue approaches or exceeds 100 billion yuan and net profit reaches 10 billion to 15 billion yuan, and using a high-cycle P/E multiple of 50x to 100x, the secondary market could assign CXMT a dominant-leader valuation.
Under that scenario framework, the report said CXMT’s long-term steady-state market capitalization would most likely fall in a range of 1.6 trillion to 2.2 trillion yuan.