Changxin Technology, identified in the source as CXMT, closed up 465.8% on its first day on Shanghai’s STAR Market. Turnover exceeded RMB 140 billion and its market capitalization reached RMB 3.28 trillion. Odaily said the debut also set a string of A-share records, including the first technology stock to open with a market value above RMB 3 trillion, the largest company by market capitalization on the STAR Market, the first stock to surpass RMB 100 billion in single-day turnover, and the first new listing to combine more than RMB 100 billion in turnover with turnover above 50% in one session.
With the first day behind it, the focus shifted quickly to valuation. Can the stock keep climbing, and if so, how far? Views from brokers, ETF managers, analysts and on-chain trading data pointed in different directions.
Nomura puts a buy on CXMT and sets a RMB 116 target
Odaily reported that Nomura published a note on the morning of the listing, assigning CXMT a buy rating with a target price of RMB 116. The report tied that figure to a 20x price-to-earnings multiple and an implied upside of 1239.5%. On that basis, the stock would be trading at roughly 13.4 times its IPO price, for an implied market value of about RMB 7.76 trillion.
In the title of the report, Nomura described the industrial value of CXMT’s DRAM chips as a “jewel in China’s crown,” according to Odaily. Under Nomura’s model, revenue rises from RMB 61.8 billion in 2025 to RMB 290.7 billion in 2026, RMB 560.8 billion in 2027 and RMB 773.3 billion in 2028. Net profit attributable to shareholders climbs from less than RMB 1.9 billion to RMB 130.3 billion in 2026, RMB 277.2 billion in 2027 and RMB 393.1 billion in 2028. The report projected compound annual growth rates of 63% for revenue and 74% for net profit.
Odaily also cited figures from the company’s listing release. CXMT expects revenue of RMB 110 billion to RMB 120 billion for the first half of 2026, up 612.53% to 677.31% year over year. It expects net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 50 billion to RMB 57 billion, up 2244.03% to 2544.19%.
The source said Nomura’s case was built on capacity expansion, technology upgrades, rising prices, CXMT’s current product mix, the memory supercycle and the use of IPO proceeds. The prospectus shows that of the RMB 57.9 billion raised in the IPO, RMB 7.5 billion is earmarked for upgrades to mass-production memory wafer lines, RMB 13 billion for DRAM core process upgrades and RMB 9 billion for forward-looking technology research and development. Odaily said the market broadly expects that last RMB 9 billion bucket to go toward HBM research.
That would place CXMT’s plans beyond its current DRAM base and into higher-margin, higher-demand memory segments such as HBM.
Northeast Securities sees a narrower valuation range
Northeast Securities was less aggressive. Odaily said the brokerage framed valuation from three angles and arrived at a range of roughly RMB 3.2 trillion to RMB 5.7 trillion, which still implied more than 42% upside from the company’s then-market value.
- On a relative market-share basis, it used U.S.-listed peers as valuation references and compared DRAM and NAND share across Micron Technology, SK hynix, Samsung Electronics and SanDisk. After splitting those companies by business segment and factoring in CXMT’s future share, it derived a target market value of RMB 3.49 trillion.
- On an earnings-based split approach, it broke down CXMT’s historical revenue and cost structure, using pricing and capacity as core variables to forecast profit over the next two years. It projected 2027 net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 284.8 billion. Applying a 10x to 15x PE multiple produced a target valuation of RMB 2.85 trillion to RMB 4.27 trillion.
- On a value-per-unit-of-capacity basis, it calculated the implied market value per unit of DRAM capacity at overseas listed memory companies and used that to estimate a target range of RMB 3.22 trillion to RMB 3.99 trillion.
ETF managers warn indicative values may diverge from NAV
Before the listing, fund managers including ChinaAMC and Harvest issued notices saying some of their ETFs had participated in the IPO allocation and that those holdings were still being valued at the issue price. Because the indicative optimized portfolio value, or IOPV, only reflected CXMT at the issue price and did not include subsequent market price moves, the first trading day could produce a gap between IOPV and actual fund NAV.
Odaily cited an ETF fund manager as saying ETF IPO participation is commonly handled alongside active equity funds. IOPV is calculated strictly from the PCF basket, and restricted non-component shares such as new IPO allocations are not counted. Once CXMT surged on day one, the actual NAV per fund share for ETFs that received allocations rose above IOPV, creating the deviation flagged by the notices.
Odaily summarized the issue in simpler terms: investors were looking at an IOPV built on the RMB 8.66 issue price, while the real NAV reflected the market price. That made the ETF appear to trade at a discount when the reference value itself was stale. The warning was aimed at reducing the risk that investors might buy ETF shares at inflated prices based on a misunderstood discount signal.
Melvin says the rally does not solve the global DRAM shortage
Milk Road AI analyst Melvin also commented on the move. As quoted by Odaily, he said CXMT’s global DRAM share had risen from less than 4% to roughly 7.7% to 8% in less than a year, while first-quarter revenue increased 719% year over year to RMB 50.8 billion.
He attributed that growth to Samsung, SK hynix and Micron shifting more capacity to AI server memory, especially HBM. That left a supply gap in traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, allowing CXMT to absorb part of the low-end and mid-range DRAM demand.
At the same time, Melvin argued the company’s output is still too small to satisfy global demand. He put CXMT’s monthly wafer capacity at about 290,000 to 320,000 wafers, below roughly 630,000 for Samsung and around 500,000 for SK hynix. He also said U.S. export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are limiting CXMT’s ability to expand faster.
On that basis, he argued CXMT is still unlikely to enter the HBM market in the near term, meaning the listing-day rally does not alter the supply-demand balance for AI memory. Samsung, SK hynix and Micron would still hold the lead in HBM, server DRAM and LPDDR5X, while the global memory shortage cycle could persist.
On-chain positioning split before the listing
Beyond broker research, Odaily cited HyperInsight monitoring of attributable wallets on Hyperliquid ahead of the listing. The sample showed wallets tagged to the U.S., Hong Kong and mainland China were net long, while tagged South Korean wallets were the main source of short exposure.
South Korean wallets held about $760,000 in short positions, with shorts about 38 times the size of their longs. Wallets tagged to Taiwan were also net short, with net short exposure of about $329,000.
On the long side, the figures in Odaily were:
- U.S.-tagged wallets held $1.6 million in longs and $345,000 in shorts, for net longs of about $1.255 million.
- Hong Kong-tagged wallets held $1.3 million in longs and $431,000 in shorts, for net longs of about $869,000.
- Mainland China-tagged wallets held $83,000 in longs and $16,000 in shorts, for net longs of about $67,000.
Odaily also included a theoretical calculation. If the South Korean tagged wallets’ $760,000 short exposure had all been opened before the opening bell at a uniform price of $6.48, with no later position adjustments and all at 1x leverage, the paper loss would be around $48,500, or about 6.4%. Based on the closing data, the long side came out ahead.
Market conviction remains, but disagreement is still clear
Odaily said a mainstream view inside the crypto market still expects further gains over the next several trading days. The source listed several reasons for that stance.
- First, only 6.63% of CXMT shares are currently in free float, and the setup was compared in the article with the early trading period of SpaceX, shown there as SPCX.
- Second, the memory supercycle is still seen by many traders as a dominant market theme. SK hynix, Samsung Electronics and Micron are still expanding production, advancing chip partnerships and building new plants, while analysts expect SK hynix’s second-quarter results to come in far above market expectations.
- Third, CXMT’s position as China’s leading memory stock has made it a closely watched trading target in A-shares and other capital markets. The article said some market participants do not view 15x to 20x PE expectations as unrealistic when combined with what it called the A-share premium effect.
- Fourth, while there were market rumors that some brokerages had internally told staff not to hype the stock, Odaily said the tape suggested institutions were staying measured while still paying close attention, leaving room for continued institutional buying.
Finally, Odaily cited the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as saying that since the listing, the wealth of founder Zhu Yiming’s family had surged by nearly 300% to $13.9 billion. According to the article, he is preparing to distribute 40% of that amount to employees as bonuses. Odaily added that the move may echo SK hynix’s practice of distributing 10% of annual net profit to staff and could slow the pace of equity monetization to some extent.