ChangXin Technology, or CXMT, began trading on Shanghai’s STAR Market on July 27. In the opening call auction, the Chinese DRAM maker was quoted at 49.5 yuan, up 471.59% from its 8.66 yuan issue price. The move lifted its market capitalization above 3 trillion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai and making it the largest stock in China’s A-share market by market value, according to BlockTempo.
Nomura starts coverage at Buy with a 116 yuan target
Nomura initiated coverage on CXMT on the day of its listing and assigned a Buy rating with a 116 yuan target price. The target was based on projected 2028 earnings per share of 5.8 yuan and a 20x price-to-earnings ratio.
The article said that valuation is twice Micron’s and implies 13.4x upside from the IPO price, translating into a market capitalization of about 7.76 trillion yuan.
Northeast Securities also published a valuation range of 3.2 trillion yuan to 5.7 trillion yuan after cross-checking three approaches: market-share anchoring, profit-split PE analysis, and per-unit-capacity valuation. The brokerage said CXMT’s minority shareholder profit share in 2025 was as high as 73.76%, far above Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, all of which were below 1%, and said that portion should be excluded when assessing valuation.
Prediction market prices in odds of an even larger valuation
Data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket showed traders assigning high odds to CXMT closing its first trading day at elevated market-cap levels.
- 100% probability of closing above 1 trillion yuan
- 96% probability of closing above 1.5 trillion yuan
- 84% probability of closing above 2 trillion yuan
- 62% probability of closing above 2.5 trillion yuan
- 42% probability of closing above 3 trillion yuan
- 27% probability of closing above 3.5 trillion yuan
At the 8.66 yuan offer price, the IPO implied a market capitalization of about 579.18 billion yuan, or about $85.4 billion. The report described it as the second-largest IPO in Chinese history.
$17.26 million Hyperliquid short appears against the rally
While the cash market opened sharply higher, CXMT’s pre-market contract on Hyperliquid drew aggressive positioning from both sides. EmberCN, an on-chain monitoring account on X, said the largest address had continued adding to a short position that had reached $17.26 million.
The average short entry price was $6.4, or about 43 yuan, with take-profit orders placed between $2 and $4.5, equivalent to roughly 13 yuan to 30 yuan. As the stock jumped at the open, the contract price briefly moved above $7 before quickly falling back to around $6.5, showing severe intraday volatility.
Liquidations top the market in the past hour
Coinglass data showed liquidations in CXMT-related contracts reached $2.36 million over the last hour, the highest total across the market.
In the A-share market on the same day, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.14% and the Shenzhen Component Index slipped 0.04%. CXMT’s debut surge stood in sharp contrast to the broader market’s muted performance.