ChainCatcher reported that crypto analyst Darkfost pushed back on a recent community claim that a 20% correction in U.S. equities would send Bitcoin down to $10,000. In his analysis, Darkfost said such a move would mean Bitcoin falling about 87% from its current price and roughly 92% from its all-time high. He noted that Bitcoin has only recorded a drawdown greater than 92% once in its history, in 2011. He also listed major drawdowns in later cycles, including 82.5% in 2015, 82.6% in 2019, 74.4% in 2022, and 54.2% in 2026. Darkfost further compared Bitcoin’s performance during two separate S&P 500 pullbacks of around 19%, pointing out that Bitcoin fell about 80% in 2018 but only around 22% in April 2025. Based on that comparison, he argued there is not enough historical evidence to directly link a 20% decline in U.S. stocks with Bitcoin dropping to $10,000.
According to ChainCatcher, crypto analyst Darkfost said a recent community view that a 20% correction in U.S. stocks would drive Bitcoin down to $10,000 is not supported by sufficient historical data.
Darkfost wrote that if Bitcoin were to fall to $10,000, it would represent a drop of about 87% from the current price and roughly 92% from its all-time high. He said Bitcoin has only seen a maximum drawdown greater than 92% once, in 2011.
Historical drawdowns
He listed Bitcoin’s maximum drawdowns in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2026 at 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4%, and 54.2%, respectively.
S&P 500 declines did not produce the same Bitcoin reaction
Darkfost also pointed to two periods when the S&P 500 fell by roughly the same amount. In 2018, with the index down about 19.53%, Bitcoin dropped about 80%. In April 2025, when the S&P 500 also fell by more than 19%, Bitcoin declined only about 22%.
On that basis, he said directly tying a 20% pullback in U.S. equities to a Bitcoin drop to $10,000 lacks enough historical support.
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