Veteran trader Doctor Profit says a historically reliable bitcoin bottom indicator has flashed for the fourth time, with the current setup mirroring the 2015, 2019 and 2022 bear market floors. The signal is triggered when the realized price of 3-to-6-month holders crosses below that of 1-to-2-year holders, suggesting newer buyers are capitulating and selling at a loss while supply shifts to longer-term hands. Bitcoin is now trading below the average cost basis of both cohorts. Still, the signal has rarely produced an immediate reversal: BTC has typically spent several more months grinding sideways before completing a base, a stretch Doctor Profit views as a long-term accumulation window. He said he has been buying BTC in tranches between $54,000 and $64,000 over the past few weeks, adding 5% of his position at a time.
Veteran trader Doctor Profit said on Aug. 12 that a historically reliable bitcoin indicator is flashing a "bottom is in or very close" signal. In each of the 2015, 2019 and 2022 bear markets, the final base-building phase began when the realized price of 3-to-6-month holders crossed below the realized price of 1-to-2-year holders.
That cross implies newer buyers are capitulating and selling at a loss, with bitcoin gradually moving into the hands of longer-term holders. The same cross is now taking place for a fourth time, and the price of BTC sits below the average cost basis of both holder groups.
History also shows the signal rarely brings an immediate reversal. Bitcoin typically needs several more months of sideways action to finish bottoming out, which makes the current phase a long-term accumulation zone in Doctor Profit's view. He said he has been buying BTC in tranches between $54,000 and $64,000 over the past few weeks, adding in 5% position increments at a time.
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