Odaily reported that the Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot shows a clear change in officials’ views on the appropriate interest-rate path for 2026 compared with the March projections. The number of officials favoring rate hikes has increased, while support for rate cuts has fallen sharply. According to the dot plot, one official believes rates should be raised three times in 2026; in March, no official selected that option.
Support for 2026 Rate Hikes Rises to Nine Officials
The details of the dot plot show that five officials believe the Fed should raise rates twice in 2026, compared with zero officials in March. Another three officials believe the Fed should raise rates once in 2026, also compared with zero in March. Together with the one official supporting three rate hikes, the total number of officials backing rate increases in 2026 has risen to nine.
Odaily, citing Jinshi, noted that one official supports an aggressive increase of 75 basis points. The dot plot also shows that eight officials believe rates should remain unchanged in 2026, compared with seven officials in March. This means the unchanged-rate camp remains one of the larger groups, while the increase in support for rate hikes marks the most notable shift in the distribution.
Support for Rate Cuts Falls to a Single Official
On the rate-cut side, only one official now believes the Fed should cut rates once in 2026, compared with seven officials in March. No officials now support two cuts in 2026, compared with two in March. No officials support three cuts, compared with two in March. No officials support four cuts, compared with one in March.
Overall, the dot plot shows that support for raising rates in 2026 has grown from zero across all rate-hike categories in March to a total of nine officials in the latest projections. At the same time, support for cutting rates has contracted from multiple cut categories to just one official backing a single cut. The figures come from the Federal Reserve’s dot plot and the related interpretation cited by Jinshi.