Odaily reported that the Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot shows a notable change in policymakers’ views on the interest-rate path for 2026 compared with the March projection. In the new distribution, a total of nine officials support rate increases in 2026, while only one official supports a rate cut.
Nine officials move into the rate-hike camp
According to the dot plot, one official believes the Fed should raise rates three times in 2026, compared with zero officials in March. Five officials believe the Fed should raise rates twice in 2026, also up from zero in March. Another three officials believe the Fed should raise rates once, again compared with zero in March. Taken together, the number of officials supporting rate hikes in 2026 has risen to nine. Among them, one official supports a more aggressive 75-basis-point tightening path.
Fewer officials support rate cuts
The number of officials favoring no change in rates also shifted slightly. Eight officials now believe rates should remain unchanged in 2026, compared with seven officials in March. On the rate-cut side, the distribution narrowed sharply: one official now supports one rate cut in 2026, down from seven in March. Zero officials support two cuts, compared with two in March; zero support three cuts, compared with two in March; and zero support four cuts, compared with one in March.
Overall, the updated dot plot shows a redistribution of 2026 rate expectations. The rate-hike options, which had no supporters in March, now have nine supporters in total. The rate-cut options, which previously had officials across several levels, now have only one supporter for a single cut. The information was provided by Jinshi.