Odaily, citing Jinshi, reported that the Federal Reserve’s dot plot shows only 18 of 19 officials submitted rate projections. The dot plot is used to present individual Federal Reserve officials’ views on the path of interest rates, and the latest distribution shows differing judgments on what should happen to rates during the remainder of 2026.
Nine officials favor rate hikes
Among the 18 officials who submitted projections, 1 official said rates should rise by a cumulative 75 basis points during the remainder of 2026. Another 5 officials said cumulative hikes of 50 basis points would be appropriate, while 3 officials favored cumulative hikes of 25 basis points. Taken together, 9 officials projected that some degree of rate increase should be taken.
The remaining projections were split between holding and cutting rates. A total of 8 officials said rates should remain unchanged for the rest of 2026, while 1 official said rates should be reduced by a cumulative 25 basis points. The submitted projections therefore cover three paths: rate hikes, no change, and a rate cut.