According to Odaily, citing Jinshi, the Federal Reserve dot plot shows a notable change in officials’ views on the interest-rate path for 2026. In the latest dot plot, one official believes rates should be raised three times in 2026, compared with zero officials holding that view in March. Five officials believe rates should be raised twice, also compared with zero in March. Another three officials believe rates should be raised once, again compared with zero in March. Taken together, the number of officials supporting rate increases in 2026 has risen to nine.
Support for 2026 Rate Hikes Rises
Among the officials backing rate hikes, the difference lies in the number of increases they expect. One official supports three hikes, corresponding to an aggressive 75 basis points of tightening. Five officials support two hikes, while three officials support one hike. In the March dot plot, no official supported one, two, or three rate hikes for 2026. The latest distribution therefore shows the pro-hike camp moving from zero officials in March to nine officials in the new dot plot.
The view that rates should remain unchanged also appears in the latest distribution. Eight officials believe the Federal Reserve should keep rates unchanged in 2026, compared with seven officials in March. This means the unchanged-rate option gained one official from the March dot plot, but that increase is smaller than the rise in support for rate hikes.
Rate-Cut Support Falls to One Official
On rate cuts, the latest dot plot shows that one official believes rates should be cut once in 2026, compared with seven officials in March. No official now supports two cuts, compared with two officials in March. No official supports three cuts, compared with two officials in March. No official supports four cuts, compared with one official in March. The distribution shows that support for rate cuts in 2026 has narrowed to only one official in the latest dot plot.
Overall, the main change in the latest dot plot is the sharp increase in the number of officials supporting rate hikes in 2026, which has risen to nine. One of those officials supports a total of 75 basis points of rate increases. At the same time, the number of officials supporting rate cuts has fallen to one. The figures reflect the Federal Reserve dot plot’s distribution of officials’ projections for the 2026 interest-rate path.