CME FedWatch Shows 38.5% Probability of a 25 bp Fed Rate Hike in July

BlockBeats reported on June 20 that, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting is now 61.5%. Under the same data set, the probability of a 25 basis point rate increase is reported at 38.5%.

CME FedWatch is commonly used to track market-implied probabilities around Federal Reserve rate decisions. In the latest reading cited in the report, the July rate path is divided between holding rates steady and raising rates by 25 basis points, with the unchanged-rate scenario carrying the higher probability.