According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 69.5%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 30.5%. By September, the probability of no change drops to 40.4%, a cumulative 25-bp hike rises to 46.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike stands at 12.8%. These figures reflect shifting market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy path, with implications for crypto market liquidity and risk asset valuations.
CME FedWatch Latest Data
According to Jin10 reporting, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 69.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 30.5%. By September, the probability of no change drops to 40.4%, a cumulative 25-bp hike rises to 46.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike stands at 12.8%.
This data indicates that the market expects the Fed to likely hold steady in July, but the likelihood of a rate hike increases significantly in September, alongside a tail risk of a 50-bp hike. For the crypto market, changes in the interest rate environment directly impact risk asset valuations and capital flows. Continued tightening by the Fed could suppress crypto market liquidity, while a shift toward rate cuts might boost market sentiment.
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