Ahead of the CPI data release, CME FedWatch shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 98.2%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by June is listed at 1.8%.
For the July time frame, CME FedWatch shows an 85.8% probability that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged. It also lists a 12.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase and a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut.
CME FedWatch is commonly used to track how interest rate futures pricing is distributed across Federal Reserve policy outcomes. The latest figures cited here cover the June and July policy horizons and the stated probabilities for no change, a 25-basis-point cut, and a 25-basis-point increase.