Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, said the bear market may not be over yet, arguing that Bitcoin’s rebound since August could mark the start of a new uptrend or simply a bear-market rally. In his view, higher prices alone do not confirm that the downturn has ended. Kuiper said November is a key period to watch under a four-year cycle framework, noting that the previous bear-market bottom came in November 2022. At the same time, he cautioned that historical cycles have never repeated with precision, leaving room for BTC to fall again and post another low in or after November. He also pointed to a more constructive signal: digital asset volatility stayed low from June through mid-August before expanding sharply, a pattern he said resembles the late stages of prior bear markets. Kuiper added that stablecoin transfers, real-world assets, and institutional participation were still growing over the same period.
Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, said the bear market may not be over yet.
He said Bitcoin’s rebound since August could either be the start of a fresh advance or just a rally inside a broader bear market, adding that higher prices do not guarantee the bear market has ended.
November is the key window he is watching
Kuiper said November is an important period to watch under a four-year cycle framework. The last bear-market bottom was recorded in November 2022.
He also cautioned that historical cycles have never repeated with precision. In that scenario, BTC could fall again and set a new low in November or later.
Signals he sees as relatively constructive
Kuiper said digital asset volatility remained low from June to mid-August and then expanded rapidly. He said the pattern resembles the final phase of several previous bear markets and could suggest selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
During the same period, stablecoin transfers, real-world assets, and institutional participation continued to grow.
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