TechFlow reported on June 13 that Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn has analyzed Bitcoin’s current market cycle and described the top signals as unusually mild. According to his review, only 2 of 11 traditional cycle-top indicators were triggered during this round. The Pi Cycle Top indicator did not trigger for the first time, while the MVRV peak reached only 2.29, well below the 2.93 to 5.91 range recorded in previous cycles.
Milder top signals and a higher cost-basis position
Thorn characterized this cycle as a “quiet top.” Under that framing, Bitcoin’s network cost basis stands at 43.7% of the all-time high, higher than the 34%, 21%, and 17% levels seen in prior cycles. In Galaxy Research’s interpretation, this higher relative cost-basis level helps explain why the estimated bottom range is also higher than in earlier cycle comparisons.
In Galaxy Research’s base case, the projected Bitcoin bottom range is $40,000 to $46,000. Under a deeper washout scenario, the estimated range falls to $30,000 to $37,000. In a shallow-decline scenario, the market would stabilize around $51,000 to $54,000. Thorn also warned that cost basis is reflexive: if genuine panic selling occurs, the bottom could move further down toward the $28,000 area.
CryptoQuant data points to a large demand contraction
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin is currently trading within a valuation zone associated with historical bear-market lows. The spot price is around $59,000, about 9% above the realized price of $53,600. This relationship between spot price and realized price is one of the data points cited in assessing current valuation conditions.
Demand data has also weakened. Over the past week, combined speculative futures and spot demand fell by 652,000 BTC, marking the largest weekly demand contraction since January 2022. The one-year demand indicator has also turned negative, showing that current buyer strength is weaker than it was one year ago. Together, these on-chain readings and Galaxy Research’s scenario ranges form the core of the analysis.