Current Status: Probability Slashed from 60% to 50%
Citing a report from Galaxy Research, Bitcoin Magazine revealed that the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have been cut from 60% three weeks ago to 50%. The primary driver is the increasingly tight Senate calendar: the bill has no finalized merged text, no scheduled floor vote, and no public commitment from leadership. After clearing the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote on May 14, the legislation has languished at calendar item #423 with no motion to proceed.
Senate Schedule Squeeze: Priority Bills Take Precedence
The report emphasizes that the Senate must announce scheduling for the bill by early July to allow a vote before the August recess. Missing that window would push consideration to September, when midterm elections approach and controversial votes become even harder to arrange. Priority items such as FISA Section 702 reauthorization and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) have consumed much of the available floor time. Additionally, President Trump's veto of a housing bill has further strained the already crowded calendar, leaving little room for CLARITY.
Substantive Disputes and Political Dynamics
Beyond scheduling, unresolved substantive issues remain. Ethics provisions continue to be a core point of contention, with at least two Republican senators expected to vote against the bill. This makes Democratic support indispensable, requiring bipartisan cooperation for passage. The report offers a conditional outlook: if leadership commits to a July vote within the next two weeks, the odds of passage could bounce back to 60% or higher. Conversely, a continued lack of progress would likely lead to further downgrades. Galaxy Research's analysis underscores the significant uncertainty surrounding crypto legislation amid the U.S. political cycle, directly impacting the timeline for a stablecoin regulatory framework.