Galaxy Research says most Polymarket retail accounts were unprofitable

Galaxy Research says most Polymarket retail accounts were unprofitable

N
News Editor
2026-10-03 11:55:11
Galaxy Research has released a report, The Behavior of Polymarket Traders, using data compiled by Stork and covering roughly 2.9 million retail accounts on Polymarket’s international platform, classified by trading frequency. The report says the platform has matched 1.27 billion orders since launching in 2020, spanning 3.07 million wallets and $82.8 billion in notional volume. It excluded 125,429 accounts that placed more than 50 orders per active day. Those accounts represented 4.1% of accounts but generated 80.8% of orders and 41% of notional volume. Among the remaining retail cohort, 69.2% were below break-even, with combined losses of $338.9 million. The median retail account lost about $3, and half of accounts fell between -$36.64 and +$0.40. The report also says excluded automated accounts posted combined profits of $246.8 million, while trading concentration and topic specialization showed wide differences in profitability.

Galaxy Research has published a report titled The Behavior of Polymarket Traders, with data compiled by Stork, based on roughly 2.9 million retail accounts on Polymarket’s international platform classified by trading frequency, according to ChainCatcher.

The report says the platform has matched 1.27 billion orders since its 2020 launch, involving 3.07 million wallets and $82.8 billion in notional value.

Most retail accounts were below break-even after high-frequency accounts were removed

The study excluded 125,429 accounts that placed more than 50 orders per active day. Those accounts made up 4.1% of all accounts, but accounted for 80.8% of orders and 41% of notional trading volume.

Galaxy Research said 69.2% of retail accounts were below break-even, with combined losses totaling $338.9 million. The median retail account lost about $3, and half of all accounts fell in a range between -$36.64 and +$0.40.

The share of traders who did not return within 30 days after a loss was 15.2%, compared with 6.1% after a profit. The excluded automated accounts posted combined profits of $246.8 million.

Position sizes and topic concentration varied across traders

The median position size for profitable traders was $13.96, versus $10 for losing traders. The report also found that 44.1% of traders concentrated more than 60% of their activity in a single topic.

Among specialized traders, sports-focused participants accounted for 47% of all specialists and had a 25.1% profitability rate, the lowest among all topics. Traders focused on technology and science posted a 41.2% profitability rate.

Report also noted taker fees on the platform

The report covers the full history of the international platform and notes that taker fees were introduced in early 2026. At a 50-cent price level, a taker in the crypto market pays $1.75 on a 100-share, $50 position, or about 3.5% of capital committed.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.
100

Disclaimer:

The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.

Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.