Galaxy Research says most Polymarket retail accounts were unprofitable

Galaxy Research has released a report, The Behavior of Polymarket Traders, using data compiled by Stork and covering roughly 2.9 million retail accounts on Polymarket’s international platform, classified by trading frequency. The report says the platform has matched 1.27 billion orders since launching in 2020, spanning 3.07 million wallets and $82.8 billion in notional volume. It excluded 125,429 accounts that placed more than 50 orders per active day. Those accounts represented 4.1% of accounts but generated 80.8% of orders and 41% of notional volume. Among the remaining retail cohort, 69.2% were below break-even, with combined losses of $338.9 million. The median retail account lost about $3, and half of accounts fell between -$36.64 and +$0.40. The report also says excluded automated accounts posted combined profits of $246.8 million, while trading concentration and topic specialization showed wide differences in profitability.