Former U.S. Representative George Santos has settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over trading on Kalshi tied to whether he would attend the February 2026 State of the Union address.
In a Friday announcement, the CFTC said Santos engaged in manipulative trading in a prediction contract on whether he would attend the event and made more than $17,500. As part of the settlement, he will pay $35,000, while neither admitting nor denying the regulator’s findings.
CFTC says public posts moved the contract price
According to the agency, Santos repeatedly commented in public during the two weeks before the State of the Union about whether he would attend, and those remarks led to sharp moves in the event contract.
The CFTC said that while holding a "Yes" position, Santos posted on X asking what he should wear to the State of the Union. Within hours, the price of "Yes" shares rose, and Santos then closed the position for a profit.
The agency also said Santos later continued posting details about his travel to Washington, D.C., including updates involving air and rail trips, and profited by trading back and forth based on the market’s response to those public statements.
Regulator says conduct was intentional or at least reckless
The CFTC said Santos’ conduct was intentional, or at minimum reckless. It said he traded an event contract whose underlying outcome he could influence, and affected the contract price through misleading public statements or omissions so that his trading positions would benefit.
Santos’ lawyer, Joseph W. Murray, said in a Friday statement that the State of the Union contract was Santos’ first time participating in prediction market betting.