Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional have jointly released their fourth-quarter 2026 "Charting Crypto" report, outlining a cautiously constructive view on Bitcoin. The report says Bitcoin moved out of its bottoming phase and into an early recovery during the third quarter, leading to a broadly positive stance for the fourth quarter, even as near-term conditions still call for caution. On-chain data cited in the report shows Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, has returned to the "Optimism/Anxiety" zone, though it remains below the threshold associated with the "Belief/Denial" stage. The report also notes that the supply of Bitcoin that has not moved for more than one year continues to rise, suggesting long-term holders largely maintained their positions during the rebound. At the same time, the return of newer market participants has lifted recently active supply. As of the end of September, the report says Bitcoin faces a dense cost-basis cluster above the current price, including an area that had previously capped gains during September, while multiple layers of support sit below.
According to ChainCatcher, Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional have jointly published their fourth-quarter 2026 Charting Crypto report.
The report says Bitcoin moved from a bottoming phase into an early recovery during the third quarter. It takes a broadly positive view on the fourth quarter, while warning that caution is still warranted in the short term.
NUPL returns to the Optimism/Anxiety zone
The report shows that Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, has moved back into the "Optimism/Anxiety" range. It remains below the threshold for the "Belief/Denial" stage.
Long-term holders kept their positions
Supply that has remained unmoved for more than one year continued to increase, indicating that long-term holders largely held through the rebound. The report also says the return of new participants pushed recently active supply higher.
Dense cost-basis cluster remains above price
As of the end of September, the report says there is a dense cost-basis cluster above Bitcoin’s price. That includes a resistance area that had previously capped September’s advance, while multiple layers of support are distributed below.
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