Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said in a note that while a technical deal on the Clarity Act remains possible, Senate scheduling and election-year politics make passage this year highly unlikely. The impact, he argued, would be muted. Failure to pass would not immediately disrupt major blockchains, bitcoin's role as a store of value, or stablecoin payment growth, as the industry has operated for nearly 17 years without such legislation. However, a lack of comprehensive market-structure rules could hold back new U.S. investment, including tokenized securities markets and a regulatory framework for digital-asset intermediaries. Under the current administration, guidance has supported the industry via custody rules, banking access, staking policies, and a crypto ETP framework. The SEC and other regulators are expected to keep filling gaps with rulemaking. But absent broad regulation, more entrepreneurial activity may shift overseas.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said in a note that while a technical agreement on the Clarity Act remains possible, the Senate calendar and election-year political realities make passage this year very unlikely. The impact, he argued, would be limited.
Failure to pass the act would not immediately affect the operation of major blockchains, demand for bitcoin as a store of value, or growth in stablecoin payments — the industry has operated for nearly 17 years without it. But the lack of comprehensive market-structure legislation could hold back new investment activity in the U.S., including the development of tokenized securities markets and a regulatory framework for digital-asset intermediaries.
Under the current administration, regulatory guidance has already supported the industry through new custody rules for institutions, improved banking access, staking policies, and a crypto ETP framework. The SEC and other regulators are expected to continue to fill the gap through rulemaking. Still, a lack of comprehensive regulation could push more entrepreneurial activity overseas.
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