Robinhood (HOOD) has shown strong share-price momentum recently. The stock briefly returned above $100 during last night’s session, although it failed to hold that level by the close. The author of the original analysis remains relatively optimistic about HOOD’s later performance and frames the latest move through several dimensions, including fundamentals, news catalysts and more direct market signals.
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week. The original text identifies that disclosure as one of the materials investors can use to explain the recent rise. The more sentiment-sensitive factors, however, come from the news flow around Robinhood’s expanding business lines. The fastest-growing area highlighted by the author is prediction markets: Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market Rothera to intercept flow from Kalshi, and related revenue is expected to no longer be shared with Kalshi. The source also points readers to the earlier article titled “The First Prediction-Market Concept Stock Has Appeared!” for more detail on that theme.
Robinhood’s IPO position is another part of the story. SpaceX’s historic IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing division, was approved last week to act as an IPO underwriter. In the author’s view, that approval gives Robinhood room to take a more central role in future IPO activities, with Anthropic and OpenAI mentioned in the original article as examples.
A separate development involves the U.S. Treasury Department. Robinhood has been selected as the broker and initial custodian for the “Trump accounts.” These accounts refer to a tax-deferred investment account plan authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025 under the “Big Beautiful” bill. The plan is designed to establish government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and are born from January 1, 2025 to January 1, 2029. According to the original article, this means tens of millions of American newborns over the coming years will default to Robinhood as their brokerage platform. The source also references a related article with the title “Robinhood Has a New Batch of Stock Investors, the Oldest Is 1 Year Old and the Youngest Is -3 Years Old.”
The author’s first reason for building a HOOD position was the expectation of a strong Q2 earnings performance. One part of that expectation came from the historic rally in U.S. equities, which was seen as a driver of a major increase in stock-trading-related revenue for the quarter. Another part came from the World Cup’s expected boost to prediction-market trading volume, along with Rothera’s role in keeping more of the associated revenue inside Robinhood.
Yet the later decision to shift a larger portion of the portfolio into HOOD, mainly by moving some remaining crypto assets, came from a different logic. In early May, a friend asked the author what had been bought recently. The author mentioned HOOD. At that point, HOOD had just fallen from above $90 after a Q1 earnings report that missed expectations, mainly because of an unexpected $100 million expense related to the “Trump accounts.” The short-term chart looked poor.
After hearing the explanation, the friend said most of the position was trapped and there was not much cash left to deploy. When asked what was being held, the answer was mostly altcoins. The author’s reply at the time was: “Rather than staying attached to altcoins, it is better to rotate directly into HOOD.” That sentence is the real center of the original analysis.
The background to that judgment is Robinhood’s historical connection with crypto. For a long period, cryptocurrency-related revenue was an important component of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s share-price movement also had a strong correlation with crypto assets. Recently, however, signs have emerged that Robinhood is breaking through its dependence on the crypto business and is moving away from that correlation in a positive direction. Looking at Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters, the original article concludes that the proportion of that revenue has generally been declining, with Q1 falling to the lowest level since 2025.
The comparison between HOOD and BTC price movements gives a more direct signal. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD has mostly traded in a pattern similar to BTC, but a clear divergence has appeared recently. The author emphasizes these two observations to argue that the valuation logic around HOOD has begun to change. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. Its business performance showed an obvious cycle alongside crypto bull and bear phases: when the crypto market surged, retail users rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee income jumped and the stock rose; when the crypto market cooled, retail users left and Robinhood’s revenue quickly weakened.
The author’s current view is that Robinhood is no longer as heavily dependent on crypto as before. Even if the crypto market continues to remain in its current weak condition, Robinhood’s stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO business and newly added underwriting operations are still seen as supports for performance growth. This does not mean the crypto market will stop affecting HOOD. On the contrary, if crypto returns to a bull market, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue will most likely expand at the same time, and HOOD can still benefit from industry growth.
In the original article’s more direct wording, crypto will still affect HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto. If a crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto continues to remain lifeless, HOOD is not bound to the same degree. For investors who still have expectations for altcoins but are increasingly worried about dried-up liquidity, failed narratives and value-capture problems, the author argues that instead of placing hopes on a token waiting for its next narrative cycle, HOOD is currently an option with a higher safety margin.