Robinhood (HOOD) has shown notable strength in recent trading. The stock briefly moved back above the $100 level overnight, although it failed to close firmly above that mark. The author of the original Odaily analysis says that, despite the inability to hold $100 at the close, they remain relatively optimistic about HOOD’s subsequent performance. The recent rally can be explained from several angles, including platform fundamentals, news-driven catalysts and more direct market signals.
Operating Data, Prediction Markets and IPO-Related Catalysts
On the fundamental side, Robinhood released its May operating data last week. The source article does not reproduce the detailed figures, but it treats the disclosure as part of the background behind the stock’s recent strength. The author then turns to news-side factors, which they describe as more effective in moving investor sentiment.
The fastest-growing area highlighted in the article is prediction markets. Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to capture flow that previously involved Kalshi. According to the original analysis, related revenue is expected no longer to be shared with Kalshi after this shift. The article also refers readers to Odaily’s previous piece titled “The first prediction market concept stock has appeared!” for more details on that specific theme.
The IPO channel is another important part of the argument. The historical-level SpaceX IPO brought record-level traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood Securities, the company’s brokerage and clearing business unit, was approved last week to serve as an IPO underwriter. In the author’s view, that approval gives Robinhood room to play a more central role in future IPO activities, with Anthropic and OpenAI mentioned in the original article as examples of the kind of future deals investors are watching.
Robinhood has also been selected by the U.S. Treasury to serve as the broker and initial custodian for “Trump Accounts.” These accounts were authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025, under the “Big Beautiful” bill. They are tax-deferred investment accounts designed to create government-funded savings accounts for children who are U.S. citizens and are born between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2029. The original article states that this arrangement means tens of millions of U.S. newborns over the coming years will use Robinhood by default as their brokerage platform.
From a Q2 Earnings Trade to a Broader Rotation Thesis
The author says their initial reason for building a position in HOOD was confidence in the company’s Q2 earnings performance. That view had two main components. The first was an expectation that, during an epic rally in U.S. equities, stock-trading-related revenue for the quarter would surge. The second was the belief that the World Cup would increase trading volume in prediction markets, while Rothera would allow Robinhood to retain more of that revenue.
However, the later decision to move a larger portion of their position into HOOD, mainly from remaining crypto assets, was based on a different logic. In early May, a friend asked the author what they had recently bought. The author mentioned HOOD. At that time, the stock had just fallen from above $90 after a Q1 earnings report that missed expectations, mainly because of an unexpected $100 million expense related to “Trump Accounts.” Its short-term chart looked poor at that moment.
After hearing the explanation, the friend said it was unfortunate that their positions were all stuck and that they had little capital left to deploy. When the author asked what the friend was holding, the answer was, unsurprisingly, mostly altcoins. The author’s response became the central line of the article: “Rather than remaining attached to altcoins, it is better to rotate directly into HOOD.”
Robinhood’s Crypto Dependence Is Weakening
The background to that judgment is the historical relationship between Robinhood and crypto trading. For a long period, crypto-related revenue was an important component of Robinhood’s total revenue, and HOOD’s share price also had a strong correlation with cryptocurrency prices. The original analysis argues that this relationship is now changing. Recent signs show Robinhood breaking through its dependence on the crypto business and positively moving away from that correlation.
The author first points to Robinhood’s crypto-related revenue over the past five quarters. Overall, the share of this revenue within the company’s total revenue has been declining, and the Q1 proportion has fallen to its lowest level since 2025. The article then compares HOOD’s movements with BTC. Since the beginning of the year, HOOD often traded in a pattern similar to Bitcoin, but a clear divergence has appeared recently.
These two observations are used to support the article’s central valuation argument. In the past, HOOD was often treated as a “shadow stock” of the crypto market. When crypto rallied sharply, retail users rushed into Robinhood to trade altcoins, fee revenue jumped and the stock took off. When crypto cooled, retail users left, and Robinhood’s revenue quickly declined. That cyclicality made HOOD look heavily tied to the bull and bear phases of the digital asset market.
The author argues that Robinhood is no longer as dependent on crypto as it once was. Even if the crypto market remains in its current weak condition, Robinhood’s stock trading, prediction market, Pre-IPO and newly added underwriting businesses can still support performance growth. This does not mean crypto will no longer affect HOOD. On the contrary, if the crypto market returns to a bull phase, Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue will very likely expand alongside it, and HOOD can still enjoy the benefit of industry growth.
In the article’s more direct formulation, crypto still affects HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on crypto. If a crypto bull market returns, HOOD can still rise with it; if crypto continues to remain weak, HOOD has other business lines to rely on. For investors who still hold expectations for altcoins but are increasingly worried about liquidity drying up, narratives failing and value capture problems, the author’s conclusion is that HOOD currently offers a higher-margin alternative than continuing to wait for a token’s next narrative cycle.