According to TechFlow on June 11, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, said that after the release of the U.S. May CPI data, the crypto market has entered a complicated short-term phase marked by rising macro pressure while expectations for monetary tightening have not fully spun out of control. Headline CPI rose 4.2% year on year, the largest increase since April 2023, and climbed 0.5% month on month. The data showed that the energy shock continued to push inflation higher.
Energy prices drive the latest inflation rebound
Chloe noted that, against the backdrop of disrupted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and tension across the global energy supply chain, energy prices became the core driver of this inflation rebound. In May, energy inflation rose 3.9% month on month and reached 23.5% year on year, while gasoline prices increased 7% from the previous month. As a result, the market has remained tied in the short term to the trading logic of “geopolitical conflict — rising oil prices — inflation rebound — a more hawkish Federal Reserve.”
However, the analysis stated that the data should not be read as one-sidedly bearish for crypto assets. Core CPI rose only 0.2% month on month, below the expected 0.3% and clearly lower than the previous reading of 0.4%. This suggested that the energy shock had not yet spread on a large scale into core services and goods prices. Chloe said this was also the main reason why the market reduced its bets on further rate hikes.
Softer core CPI gives major crypto assets support
Short-term interest rate futures showed that the Federal Reserve was almost not going to raise rates at next week’s meeting, while the probability of a July rate hike was only about 13%. Under these conditions, major assets such as BTC and ETH did not see sharp short-term selling. The lower-than-expected core inflation reading gave mainstream crypto assets a degree of support, leaving the market with some buffer even as energy inflation remained elevated.
The key tension at present is that liquidity expectations have not fully deteriorated, but risk appetite is still being restrained by energy inflation and policy uncertainty. If oil prices stabilize over the coming weeks, the market will again trade around the logic of “inflation peaking and rate-hike probability declining,” giving BTC room to maintain high-level consolidation and even stage a repair-driven rebound. If the Strait of Hormuz issue continues to worsen and oil prices move further upward, the market will reprice a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and highly leveraged altcoins as well as high-FDV new tokens will face greater selling pressure.
PPI and Warsh’s first Fed meeting become near-term focus
After the CPI release, gold and silver moved higher, showing that capital was still being allocated toward safe-haven assets rather than returning fully to risk assets. In Chloe’s view, the crypto market is more likely to show structural performance: BTC remains relatively resilient, ETH follows changes in macro liquidity, altcoins continue to diverge, and capital flows first toward assets with real revenue, strong trading volume, or links to AI and Perp DEX sectors.
Overall, the analysis concluded that this CPI report did not directly end the rebound logic for the crypto market, but it was also not enough to start a broad bull market. The market’s short-term focus will shift to tomorrow’s PPI data and the Federal Reserve meeting in one week, which will be chaired by Warsh for the first time. If the Fed’s wording moves from a dovish tendency toward neutral or even tighter guidance, crypto assets will come under renewed pressure. If core inflation continues to improve and oil prices no longer run out of control, a weak repair trend will still follow this round of pullback. Before energy prices and the Fed’s statements provide clearer direction, a neutral-to-cautious stance remains the main tone of the market. Note: the original content is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.