Hyperliquid is moving to open prediction market deployment beyond validators and make the category accessible to a wider set of participants.
The exchange said follow-up enhancements to its recent HIP-4 upgrade will allow anyone to deploy prediction markets on the platform. HIP-4 introduced “outcome trading” in May, but those markets are still fully controlled by validators for now. Hyperliquid said that, “ideally,” fewer than 10 markets per year will be run by validators in the future, with the rest opened to anyone. The feature is set to go live on testnet first before reaching mainnet.
A 500,000 HYPE stake is the entry requirement
Anyone who wants to launch a market must stake 500,000 HYPE, or about $30 million based on the figures cited in the article. That stake functions as serious collateral. If validators decide a market was defined unclearly or settled incorrectly, the deposit can be slashed.
In return, deployers can collect as much as 50% of the trading fees generated by that market. The article says this mirrors the economic design behind Hyperliquid’s permissionless perpetuals: put real capital at risk, make a good market and earn money, or get it wrong and lose the stake.
The report contrasts this setup with Polymarket and Kalshi, where each market is defined from the top down by the platform. Hyperliquid’s approach, as framed in the piece, is to turn prediction markets into another piece of permissionless infrastructure rather than a tightly curated product.
Prediction market activity surged in June
The timing comes after what the article describes as the hottest summer on record for prediction markets. The World Cup helped push sector-wide betting volume to $50 billion in June. July has reached $37 billion so far and was described as being on track to go higher.
Out of that $50 billion June total, Kalshi was the clear market leader with $33 billion, equal to a 66% market share. Hyperliquid, by comparison, handled $176 million. On those numbers, the article says Hyperliquid still has a long way to go if it wants to make meaningful gains in the segment.
The article says Hyperliquid is trying to open-source the category
The piece argues that Hyperliquid’s answer is to open the category and treat prediction markets as permissionless infrastructure. It also notes that Hyperliquid has already been breaking DEX volume records, has drawn a JPMorgan warning about its potential threat to Circle, and has been lobbying both the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The article says that if the permissionless model works, it could help Hyperliquid make a bigger mark in the space.
Macro, crypto and markets
- Major crypto assets closed the week up 2% to 5%: BTC rose 3% to $64,600, ETH gained 6% to $1,885, SOL added 1% to $76.60, and HYPE fell 7% to $60.80.
- PUMP, up 27%, INJ, up 10%, and VVV, up 9%, led the week.
- After progress in Iran talks, oil fell 4% to $80, while gold rose 1% to $4,024.
- As oil sold off, index futures moved higher: the Dow was up 0.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.
- Michael Saylor called Bitcoin’s BIP-110 proposal “a bad idea,” saying the anti-spam plan would create a precedent for censorship and that “the proposed cure is more dangerous than the disease.”
- Galaxy Digital signed a 15-year naming rights agreement to rename Texas Tech University’s football stadium as “Galaxy Stadium.”
- Project Eleven launched a technology that lets users prove wallet ownership even after quantum computers become capable of deriving private keys.
- The GENIUS Act marked its first anniversary. Regulators did not complete rulemaking by the deadline, but the framework is set to take full effect by July 2028.
Corporate flows and ETFs
- Bitcoin ETFs posted $132 million in net inflows on Friday and $75 million for the week.
- Ethereum ETFs recorded $37 million of inflows on Friday and $105 million for the week.
Meme coin tracker
- Leading meme coins were mostly flat or higher over the past week: DOGE was flat, SHIB slipped 1%, PEPE rose 5%, PENGU gained 4%, TRUMP added 1%, and BONK dropped 23%.
- On Robinhood chain, Stonkbroker rose 160%, REAL climbed 200x, and FOX gained 70%. Cashcat rose 22% to $72 million.
- On Solana, AVA gained 30% and Cubeman rose 85%, while ANSEM added 5% to $198 million.
Tokens, airdrops and protocols
- Pump Fun’s PUMP token led altcoins and rose 26% this week as the unlock wave began.
- Cross-chain protocol Allbridge paused after a $1.65 million flash loan attack. The article says the exploit manipulated the ratio in its Solana pool and was the latest incident in a broader run of DeFi attacks.
NFTs
- Leading NFT collections were slightly lower: Punks were flat at 32 ETH, BAYC fell 2% to 8.65 ETH, Pudgy slipped 5% to 4.06 ETH, and Hypurr's was flat at 188 HYPE.
- Stonkbrokers rose 125% and Funkari gained 30%.
- Pudgy Penguins plush toys officially launched in Target stores across the U.S.